用于地震可预测性CSEP计划的南北地震带地区地震最小完整性震级Mc研究

Abstract

Abstract: To determine the studying region of China Testing Center of Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability(CSEP), we used the entire-magnitude-range(EMR) method to study the spatial distribution of minimum magnitude of completeness (M_c) in the North-South Seismic Belt from Oct. 1, 2008 to May 31, 2011. Also bootstrap testing are performed to estimate the uncertainty of M_c, i.e. δM_c. The results show that M_c (EMR)=1.6±0.03 for the whole region. From the spatial distributions of M_c, we find that M_c is in the range of M_L1.3～2.0 for most regions. Specifically, the spatial distributions of M_c are consistent with the distributions of stations with high monitor level in the south segment and low monitor level in the north segment. Location with less than three stations has a great influence on M_c. Moreover, the uncertainties of minimum magnitude of completeness (δM_c) range from 0.07 to 0.22. The spatial distribution of δM_c is consistent with the seismic rate. Shorter time interval may cause larger δM_c.

Key words: Earthquake Predictability, CSEP, Minimum magnitude of completeness, Entire-magnitude-range(EMR), The North-South seismic belt

CLC Number:

P315

HAN Li-bo, JIANG Chang-sheng, LI Yan-e, GUO Xiang-yun. Minimum Magnitude of Completeness in the North- South Seismic Belt for Collaboratory Study of Earthquake Predictability[J]. EARTHQUAKE, 2012, 32(1): 17-27.

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Minimum Magnitude of Completeness in the North- South Seismic Belt for Collaboratory Study of Earthquake Predictability

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