中长期地震危险性概率预测中的统计检验方法I: Molchan图表法

Abstract

Abstract: The statistical test of long-term and intermediate-term seismic hazard probabilistic forecasting is an important aspect of earthquake forecast/prediction. Using general statistical test method is one of the necessary conditions for promoting earthquake forecast/prediction theory and model accessibility exchange and development. Based on the retrospective forecast results of PI and RI algorithm in the northeastern marginal region of the Qingzang plateau, we try to introduce how to apply the Molchan error diagram to do the statistical test of earthquake probabilistic forecast, and the situation of spatial-box number weighted and seismic rate weighted are considered respectively to calculate the fraction of space-time occupied by alarm. The result shows that the Molchan error diagram can evaluate the probabilistic earthquake forecast model effectively by using the significance level α and the probability gain. Furthermore, the significant different testing results also can be found when different forecast/prediction strategies are employed even if for the same forecast/prediction results.

Key words: Seismic hazard probabilistic forecasting, Statistical test, Molchan error diagram

CLC Number:

P315.7

JIANG Chang-sheng, ZHANG Lang-ping, HAN Li-bo, LAI Gui-juan. Probabilistic Forecasting Method of Long-term and Intermediate-term Seismic Hazard I: Molchan Error Diagram[J]. EARTHQUAKE, 2011, 31(2): 106-113.

References

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Probabilistic Forecasting Method of Long-term and Intermediate-term Seismic Hazard I: Molchan Error Diagram

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