Abstract: The heterogeneity parameter C_v of spatial distribution of earthquake is an effective predictor of earthquakes. However, comparative analysis of their results is not very easy due to the uncertain relationship between the size of confidence interval and the size of the sample events of spatial distribution of C_v-value during the same level of reliability, which can impair its utility. In the present study, we defined a new parameter K_cv based on the parameter C_v. Further, according to the spatial-temporal probability gain model and the assessment method of efficiency of earthquake prediction methods, the empirical earthquake probability gain spectrum and efficiency spectrum of this novel method were calculated using the heterogeneity research and earthquake case statistics over the past 20 years. The robustness and effectiveness of K_cv-value method were further evaluated by analyzing its probability gain values, the probability of ≥M_W6.9 earthquake occurrences from 2000 to 2009 and their actual test of retrospective predictions. Our approach provides a way of predicting the ≥M_W6.9 earthquake probability and probability gain from 2010 to 2019, and providing a reference to determine Asian earthquake risk zones in the next decade.

Key words: K_cv-Value, Monte Carlo, Prediction performance, Probability gain, Asia