Welcome to EARTHQUAKE,

EARTHQUAKE ›› 2011, Vol. 31 ›› Issue (3): 64-76.

Previous Articles     Next Articles

Retrospection on the Conclusions from Earthquake Tendency Forecasts before the 2010 Yushu M7.1 Earthquake

LI Gang, LIU Jie, WANG Bo, GUO Tie-shuan, ZHANG Yong-xian, ZHOU Long-quan1   

  1. China Earthquake Networks Center, Beijing 100045, China
  • Received:2010-07-22 Revised:2011-04-15 Published:2021-09-09

Abstract: In the paper, we collected and analyzed seismicity and precursor anomalies and their analysis results on yearly earthquake tendency forecast and weekly/monthly consultations between Wenchuan M8.0 earthquake on May 12, 2008 and Yushu M7.1 earthquake on April 14, 2010. The results show that there were some explicit phenomena before the Yushu M7.1 earthquake, which forecasted the earthquake tendency and important seismic risk area in China mainland. But Yushu is in an area of poor monitoring capability, lacking the credible moderate-short term precursory anomalies, therefore the area was not judged to be the annual key regions with a certain seismic risk, only mentioned in the earthquake tendency and important seismic risk area in China mainland. The strong-earthquake risk in the middle and east parts of the Tibet block was enhanced in 2010. But seismicity anomalies in the Yushu area were mainly the quietude anomalies, and precursory anomalies were few. Therefore short term prediction for the Yushu M7.1 earthquake could not be made.

Key words: Yushu earthquake, Yearly earthquake tendency, Important seismic risk area, Precursory anomaly

CLC Number: