Abstract: According to the structure division result of active block and seismic zone, we select the M_S≥4.7 earthquakes the Fenwei seismic zone using MAPSIS software. This data may have the characteristic of one geology unit. Using the 19-order non-linear mathmatical polynomial whose correlation coefficients can be obtained by the method of least squares, we made optimum approaches to data by fitting, and made a prediction of seismic tendency in 1 to 2 years' time. This provides a mathematical model prediction method to describe the rule of seismic tendency in the Fenwei seismic zone.

Key words: Fenwei seismic zone, Seismic tendency, Mathmatical modeling