严重的挫折 重要的启示汶川8.0级地震引发的对地震预测研究的某些科学思考

Abstract

Abstract: In this paper, we first analyse the severe setbacks that the efforts of earthquake prediction research has suffered in Wenchuan Ms8.0 earthquake. Three major difficulties are considered to contribute to that situation: the unknowability of the inner earth, the infrequency of major earthquakes, and the complexity of earthquake physical process. But these serious setbacks also carry several significant implications: Faced with the difficulties of earthquake prediction, we should endeavor to appropriately handle the relations between inheritance and development of earthquake prediction theory, highlight the dominant role of seismological scientists and researchers in order to make more innovations in theories and technologies in earthquake prediction, and identify the subjects in seismological prediction and intensify the research of large earthquakes.

Key words: Wenchuan earthquake, Earthquake prediction, Suggestion

CLC Number:

P315.7

CHEN Zhang-li, LI Zhi-xiong. Severe Failure and Important Recognition: Some Thoughts on Earthquake Monitoring and Prediction Research due to the Wenchuan 8.0 Earthquake[J]. EARTHQUAKE, 2009, 29(1): 182-192.

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Severe Failure and Important Recognition: Some Thoughts on Earthquake Monitoring and Prediction Research due to the Wenchuan 8.0 Earthquake

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