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地震 ›› 2014, Vol. 34 ›› Issue (1): 34-40.

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欧亚地震带地震活动增强与中国大陆地区7级以上地震发生的关系分析

陈学忠, 李艳娥, 王恒信   

  1. 中国地震局地球物理研究所, 北京 100081
  • 发布日期:2020-07-20
  • 作者简介:陈学忠(1963-), 男, 重庆永州人, 研究员, 主要从事数字地震学及地震预报等研究。
  • 基金资助:
    中国地震局地球物理研究所基本业务专项(DQJB12C06)

On the Relationship between Seismic Enhancement of the Eurasian Seismic Belt and the Occurrences of M≥7 Earthquakes in Mainland China

CHEN Xue-zhong, LI Yan-e, WANG Heng-xin   

  1. Institute of Geophysics, CEA, Beijing 100081, China
  • Published:2020-07-20

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摘要： 根据欧亚地震带7级以上地震释放能量与全球7级以上地震释放总能量之比，利用χ2检验方法对欧亚地震带地震活动增强与中国大陆地区7级以上地震发生的关系进行了统计检验。结果表明，当出现欧亚带年地震释放能量比高于50%且有8级以上地震发生时，其后3年内中国大陆地区将有发生多次7级以上地震或8级地震的可能性，这个关系在10%的显著水平下通过显著性检验。

关键词: 地震活动, 欧亚地震带, 中国大陆地区, 7级以上地震, χ2检验

Abstract: According to the ratio of the seismic energy released by the M≥7 earthquakes in the Eurasian Seismic Belt to that released by the earthquakes with the same magnitude range in the whole world, we analyzed the relationship between the seismic enhancement of the Eurasian Seismic Belt and the occurrences of M≥7 earthquakes in the Chinese mainland based on the χ2 test of significance. The results show that when the ratio of the annually seismic energy released by the M≥7 earthquakes in the Eurasian Seismic Belt to that released by the M≥7 earthquakes in the whole world is above 50 percent and an M≥8 earthquake occurs in the Eurasian Seismic Belt, in the following three years there would be more than one M≥7 or M8 earthquakes occurring in the Chinese mainland. The test of significance under the significance level of 10 percent for this relationship can be passed.

Key words: Eurasian seismic belt, Enhancement of seismicity, M≥7 earthquakes, The χ2 test of significance, Chinese mainland

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