汶川8级地震前加卸载响应比的大尺度异常

地震 ›› 2009, Vol. 29 ›› Issue (1): 53-59.

汶川8级地震前加卸载响应比的大尺度异常

尹祥础^1,2, 张浪平², 张永仙^2,3, 彭克银^2,3, 王海涛^2,4, 宋治平^2,5, 李文军¹, 张晓涛³, 袁帅^2,6

1.中国地震局地震预测研究所, 北京 100036;
2.中国科学院力学研究所非线性力学国家重点实验室, 北京 100190;
3.中国地震台网中心, 北京 100045;
4.新疆维吾尔自治区地震局, 新疆乌鲁木齐 830011;
5.上海市地震局, 上海 200062;
6.中国科学院研究生院, 北京 100049

收稿日期:2008-10-06 修回日期:2008-10-23 出版日期:2009-01-31 发布日期:2021-10-15
作者简介:尹祥础(1935-), 男, 江西永新人, 研究员, 博士生导师, 主要从事地震力学、地震预测等研究。
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金项目(10721202)

Large Scale LURR Anomaly before Wenchuan Earthquake

YIN Xiang-chu^1,2, ZHANG Lang-ping², ZHANG Yong-xian^2,3, PANG Ke-yin^2,3, WANG Hai-tao^2,4, SONG Zhi-ping^2,5, YUAN Shuai^2,6

1. Institute of Earthquake Science, CEA, Beijing 100036, China;
2. State Key Laboratory of Nonlinear Mechanics (LNM), Institute of Mechanics, CAS, Beijing 100190, China;
3. China Earthquake Network Center, CEA, Beijing 100036, China;
4. Xinjiang Earthquake Bureau, CEA, Urumchi 830011, China;
5. Shanghai Earthquake Bureau, CEA, Shanghai 200062, China;
6. Graduate School, CAS, Beijing 100039, China

Received:2008-10-06 Revised:2008-10-23 Online:2009-01-31 Published:2021-10-15

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 孕震初期加卸载响应比(LURR)通常在1左右涨落, 然后逐渐上升至峰值点。但强地震并不在峰值点上发生, 而要滞后一段时间(T₂)。 T₂与震级有关, 震级越大, T₂越长。对于8级地震, T₂的计算值为28±8个月, 汶川8级地震实际的T₂是23 个月。对于大地震, T₂很长, 峰值点后LURR通常迅速下降, 在大地震前夕LURR常常降得很低, 而预测的地震又迟迟没有发生, 这种情况下很容易误导人们怀疑, 甚至放弃原来的预测, 殊不知, 这时大地震正在迫近。这正是汶川8级地震给予人们血的教训。大地震不仅孕育时间长, 孕震区面积也很大。大地震的前兆在时空上都是大尺度。基于这种认识, 根据LURR的演化, 中国大陆西南地区可能正在孕育一个特大地震。

关键词: 汶川8级地震, 加卸载响应比, 地震前兆, 大时空观

Abstract: The Load-Unload Response Ratio(LURR) value fluctuates around 1.0 during the early stage of the seismogenic process and then gradually reaches its peak point (PP), but strong earthquakes do not onset at that time and will occur sometime later. This lag time( T₂ ) depends on magnitude of the impending earthquake. The larger the magnitude, the longer the lag time T₂ will be. For a large earthquake like M8, the anticipated T₂ is 28±8 months and the real T₂ for Wenchuan earthquake was 23 months. After the peak point, LURR decreases sharply and T₂ lasts a long time. Therefore at the eve of a large event LURR would be very low, but the predicted earthquake has not happened yet. In such a case, it is easy to doubt and even give up a correct prediction. That was the blood lesson to us from Wenchuan earthquake. A large earthquake should prepare not only for a long time, but also in a vast region. In one word, the LURR anomaly (and also the other precursors perhaps) of a large earthquake will be revealed in large temporal and spatial scales. Based on this insight we predict that a super large earthquake is prepared in south-western China.

Key words: Wenchuan M8.0 earthquake, LURR, Earthquake precursor, Large Scale Phenomena

中图分类号:

P315.7

尹祥础, 张浪平, 张永仙, 彭克银, 王海涛, 宋治平, 李文军, 张晓涛, 袁帅. 汶川8级地震前加卸载响应比的大尺度异常[J]. 地震, 2009, 29(1): 53-59.

YIN Xiang-chu, ZHANG Lang-ping, ZHANG Yong-xian, PANG Ke-yin, WANG Hai-tao, SONG Zhi-ping, YUAN Shuai. Large Scale LURR Anomaly before Wenchuan Earthquake[J]. EARTHQUAKE, 2009, 29(1): 53-59.

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