汶川余震序列的加卸载响应比分析

地震 ›› 2009, Vol. 29 ›› Issue (1): 60-67.

汶川余震序列的加卸载响应比分析

张浪平^1,3, 尹祥础^1,2, 庄建仓⁴, 张晓涛⁵, 袁帅^1,3, 梁乃刚¹

1.中国科学院力学研究所非线性国家重点实验室,北京 100190;
2.中国地震局地震预测研究所,北京 100036;
3.中国科学院研究生院,北京 100049;
4.统计数学研究所,日本东京 106-8569;
5.中国地震台网中心, 北京 100045

收稿日期:2008-09-28 修回日期:2008-10-23 出版日期:2009-01-31 发布日期:2021-10-15
作者简介:张浪平(1982-), 男, 湖南涟源人, 2006年在读博士研究生, 主要从事地震力学和地震预测等研究。
基金资助:
国家973项目(2004CB418406); 国家自然科学基金项目(10721202, 10572140); 国家地震网格计算应用节点建设(2005DKA64003)资助

Load/Unload Response Ratio Analysis of the Wenchuan Aftershock Sequence

ZHANG Lang-ping^1,2, YIN Xiang-chu^1,3, ZHUANG Jian-cang⁴, ZHANG Xiao-tao⁵, YUAN Shuai^1,3, LIANG Nai-gang¹

1. LNM, Institute of Mechanics, CAS, Beijing 100190, China;
2. Institute of Earthquake Science, CEA, Beijing 100036, China;
3. Graduate University of CAS, Beijing 100190, China;
4. Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Tokyo 106-8569, Japan;
5. China Earthquake Networks Center, CEA, Beijing 100036, China

Received:2008-09-28 Revised:2008-10-23 Online:2009-01-31 Published:2021-10-15

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 该文首先将汶川余震序列分成西南、东北两段, 用加卸载响应比方法分别进行分析, 结果表明震后两段的响应比值都比较低, 明显小于1, 这可判断汶川地震属于主余震型地震; 且地震序列中的强余震(M≥5.0)发生前加卸载响应比值出现明显异常, 大都是加卸载响应比出现峰值, 之后发生强余震。考虑到主震后余震的时空丛集现象, 结合ETAS模型对原有的加卸载响应比计算式进行改造, 并分析了主震之后15天的改造后响应比值, 发现改造后的响应比在一定程度上消除了丛集的影响, 并展示了对紧随主震发生的强余震的预测能力。

关键词: 加卸载响应比, 强余震预测, ETAS模型, 汶川地震

Abstract: On 12 May 2008, Wenchuan earthquake with magnitude M_S8.0 occurred in Sichuan, China. Because of the different focal mechanisms, we divide the distribution region of Wenchuan aftershocks into two parts, namely the southwest part and the northeast part, which are analysed using the Load/Unload Response Ratio (LURR) method separately. The results showed that LURR-values in both the two parts are obviously smaller than 1.0 after the main shock, so the Wenchuan earthquake can be determined to be the usual mainshock-aftershock type. On the other hand, before the occurrence of strong aftershocks (M≥5.0) in the sequence, the LURR-values show anomalies of high values and most strong aftershocks occurred after LURR experienced a peak value. Considering the temporal clustering and spatial concentration of aftershock sequences after the occurrence of most major earthquakes, an improved version of LURR combining the epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model is applied to the analyses of the sequence in the first 15 days after the main shock. The results showed that the new LURR can eliminate the fluctuations caused by aftershock clusters to some extent and is better for forecasting strong aftershocks.

Key words: Load/Unload Response Ratio (LURR), Strong aftershock forecast, ETAS model, Wenchuan earthquake

中图分类号:

P315.7

张浪平, 尹祥础, 庄建仓, 张晓涛, 袁帅, 梁乃刚. 汶川余震序列的加卸载响应比分析[J]. 地震, 2009, 29(1): 60-67.

ZHANG Lang-ping, YIN Xiang-chu, ZHUANG Jian-cang, ZHANG Xiao-tao, YUAN Shuai, LIANG Nai-gang. Load/Unload Response Ratio Analysis of the Wenchuan Aftershock Sequence[J]. EARTHQUAKE, 2009, 29(1): 60-67.

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