基于图像信息方法的南北地震带地震预测研究

doi:10.12196/j.issn.1000-3274.2023.03.012

Abstract

Abstract: We study the prediction efficiency of Pattern Informatics method (PI) in different areas of the North-South Seismic Belt in this paper. The earthquake catalogue since 1970 is taken from the China Earthquake Networks Center. Both the change interval and forecast interval are fixed as 5 years and the grid size is taken as 1°×1°. We have the retrospective forecasting for 6 earthquakes above M_S6.0 in the study region since 2017. The forecasting efficiency of PI is tested by ROC (Receiver Operating Characteristic) method. The results show that: ① The prediction efficiency of the south, middle and north sections of the North-South Seismic Belt shows a trend of decreasing gradually, but the change is small. This indicates that the prediction performance of PI method is affected by the intensity of regional seismicity to a certain extent. ② The prediction efficiency of piecewise calculation for the North-South Seismic Belt is better than that of the whole calculation for the North-South Seismic Belt. In terms of prediction efficiency, the north and middle sections of the North-South Seismic Belt are the best, the south, middle and north sections are the second, the middle and south sections are relatively low, and the North-South Seismic Belt as a whole is the lowest. The analysis shows that the calculation process of PI method involves the normalization of seismicity, so PI prediction performance is better for areas with similar seismicity. Hot spots generated by PI in regions with different seismicity are mainly generated in areas with high seismicity and the prediction efficiency is low. Therefore, regional division of the North-South Seismic Belt by seismicity can improve the prediction efficiency. ③ There are persistent high probability “hot spots” in Yongde-Lushui area in southwest Yunnan and near the southern section of Longmenshan Fault. These areas should be concerned for earthquakes with M_S≥6 in the next five years.

Key words: Pattern informatics methods, North-South seismic belt, Strong earthquake prediction, ROC test

CLC Number:

P315.75

TIAN Wei-xi, ZHANG Yong-xian. Study on Earthquake Forecast in the North-South Seismic Belt by Pattern Informatics Method[J]. EARTHQUAKE, 2023, 43(3): 159-177.

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Study on Earthquake Forecast in the North-South Seismic Belt by Pattern Informatics Method

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