对强震地形变监测预报方法的思考

doi:10.12196/j.issn.1000-3274.2024.01.005

Abstract

Abstract: The development process and present situation of strong earthquake monitoring and prediction with crust deformation data in China are reviewed briefly. The prominent crust deformation anomalies obtained before several strong earthquakes are analyzed. The study results in several aspects are collected including earthquake monitoring and prediction, large area deformation anomaly, time order and spatial matching of earthquake precursor distribution, huge deformation anomaly before strong earthquakes, ground vertical deformation before strong earthquakes by InSAR, ground tilt anomaly, slow earthquake and pre-slip, etc. The comprehensive analysis shows that there is a large and rapid ground abnormal uplift near the epicenter of coming earthquakes. It is worth trying to capture timely and effectively the abnormal information of time order and space matching of large and rapid ground abnormal uplift before strong earthquakes, so as to provide effective prediction for the future strong earthquakes in densely populated areas. Based on this study, a high density, large range and low precision ground tilt observation is proposed for the key surveillance and defense areas of strong earthquakes with densely populated, and the observation scheme, basic principle and data calculation and processing method are given preliminarily.

Key words: Strong earthquake prediction, Crust deformation monitoring, Huge deformation, Ground tilt, Ground uplift

CLC Number:

P315.7

BO Wan-ju, ZHANG Li-cheng, SU Guo-ying, XU Dong-zhuo, ZHAO Li-jun. Thoughts on Monitoring and Forecasting Methods of Strong Earthquake with Crust Deformation Data[J]. EARTHQUAKE, 2024, 44(1): 64-77.

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Thoughts on Monitoring and Forecasting Methods of Strong Earthquake with Crust Deformation Data

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