中国陆区未来1—3年地震趋势与长期危险区发震紧迫程度预测研究

doi:10.12196/j.issn.1000-3274.2025.01.014

地震 ›› 2025, Vol. 45 ›› Issue (1): 214-260.doi: 10.12196/j.issn.1000-3274.2025.01.014

• 地震监测预报60周年专栏 • 上一篇

中国陆区未来1—3年地震趋势与长期危险区发震紧迫程度预测研究

邵志刚¹, 刘琦¹, 潘正洋¹, 王武星¹, 武艳强², 周斌³, 孟令媛⁴, 孙小龙⁵, 冯蔚¹, 王芃¹, 魏文薪¹, 刘晓霞¹, 尹晓菲¹, 王振宇¹, 戴娅琼¹, 解滔⁴, 闫伟⁴, 刁洋洋¹

1.地震预测与风险评估应急管理部重点实验室(中国地震局地震预测研究所), 北京 100036;
2.中国地震局第一监测中心, 天津 300180;
3.广西壮族自治区地震局, 广西南宁 530022;
4.中国地震台网中心, 北京 100045;
5.应急管理部国家自然灾害防治研究院, 北京 100085

收稿日期:2025-01-09 接受日期:2025-01-12 出版日期:2025-01-31 发布日期:2025-04-15
作者简介:邵志刚(1977-), 男, 山东临沂人, 研究员, 主要从事地球动力学与地震活动性研究。E-mail: shaozg0911@126.com
基金资助:
国家重点研发计划项目(2023YFC3007300)

Prediction of Seismic Trends for the Forthcoming One to Three Years and Evaluation of the Urgency of Earthquake Occurrences in Long-Term Seismic Hazard Zones within Chinese Mainland

SHAO Zhi-gang¹, LIU Qi¹, PAN Zheng-yang¹, WANG Wu-xing¹, WU Yan-qiang², ZHOU Bin³, MENG Ling-yuan⁴, SUN Xiao-long⁵, FENG Wei¹, WANG Peng¹, WEI Wen-xin¹, LIU Xiao-xia¹, YIN Xiao-fei¹, WANG Zhen-yu¹, DAI Ya-qiong¹, XIE Tao⁴, YAN Wei⁴, DIAO Yang-yang¹

1. Key Laboratory of Earthquake Forecasting and Risk Assessment, Ministry of Emergency Management (Institute of Earthquake Forecasting, China Earthquake Administration), Beijing 100036, China;
2. The First Monitoring and Application Center, CEA, Tianjin 300180, China;
3. Seismological Bureau of Guangxi Province, Nanning 530022, China;
4. China Earthquake Networks Center, Beijing 100045, China;
5.National Institute of Natural Hazards, Ministry of Emergency Management of China, Beijing 100085, China

Received:2025-01-09 Accepted:2025-01-12 Online:2025-01-31 Published:2025-04-15

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 中期地震预测作为中国“长-中-短-临”渐进式地震预报体系的中间环节, 在动态跟踪长期趋势预测与地震重点危险区判识结果、衔接年度预测与短临预报方面发挥着关键作用。该环节为短临预测提供科学背景依据, 其核心任务体系由地震大形势跟踪专家组负责实施, 主要包括两大核心任务: 第一, 开展1—3年尺度地震活动趋势研判和主体活动区判定, 包含大陆地区地震活跃程度升降趋势、最高活动水平(最大震级与7级地震频度)预测, 以及基于全国地震趋势与构造动力环境分析的主体活动区域综合判定; 第二, 实施10年尺度地震重点危险区在中期时段发震紧迫性动态评估。技术体系层面, 趋势预测主要依托强震期幕活动规律、地震活动异常特征、区域形变场演化程度及断层应力状态等四类指标, 涉及的数据处理、分析和计算均为定量方法, 但整体而言这些指标主要是基于震例的经验预测方法; 发震紧迫程度判定尽量沿用长期预测思路, 动态跟踪断层运动状态、断层应力状态和震源异常等, 整体上是基于震源物理模型的概率预测和基于震例指标的经验预测的结合。本研究系统介绍了中国陆区未来1—3年地震趋势与长期危险区紧迫程度的跟踪思路和技术体系, 对每类预测方法简要从基本原理、技术方法和中期异常特征等方面进行介绍, 最后结合中期预测实践和相关研究进展, 提出了大陆型强震孕育发生过程及前兆成因机制等研究需求, 并对中国地震数值预测和地震预报业务信息化进行了展望。在业务方面, 希望通过技术体系、跟踪思路和预测方法的阶段总结进一步明确中期预测的发展方向; 在科学上, 围绕中期预测的业务发展, 明确基本科技需求: 一个场源结合的科学思路、两个基础性框架科学理论、三个地震动力学科学问题, 期望为地震预测基础研究和预报业务发展起到抛砖引玉的作用。

关键词: 中期地震预测, 长期地震重点危险区, 1—3年地震趋势, 长期危险区紧迫程度

Abstract: Medium-term earthquake prediction plays a vital role in China’s progressive forecasting system, which integrates the mid-long term earthquake prediction. It enables dynamic monitoring of long-term trend predictions and key seismic hazard zone forecasts, applies these results to annual forecasting, and provides a reliable scientific basis for short-term forecasts. The task of dynamically monitoring long-term trends and location predictions is undertaken by the Expert Group on Tracking Earthquake Situations within the General Seismic Trend. The main tasks of tracking earthquake situations within the general seismic trend include: ① Determining seismic activity trends and main active zones for the next 1—3 years or longer. This involves forecasting changes in seismic trends (e.g., increases or decreases) in Chinese mainland, predicting the highest activity levels (maximum magnitude and frequency of M7 earthquakes), and identifying major active zones of strong earthquake based on a synthesis of national seismic trends and key tectonic zone analyses. ② Assessing the urgency of earthquake occurrences in key seismic risk zones identified on a 10-year scale for the next three years. The foundation of earthquake trend and key area prediction primarily includes phase activity, anomalies in seismic activity, regional crustal deformation, and the state of regional crustal stress. While the data processing, analysis, and calculation methods employed are quantitative, the underlying approach generally relies on empirical prediction methods derived from historical earthquake cases. The identification of long-term hazardous areas relies on probabilistic predictions derived from physical models of seismic sources. Similarly, the medium-term assessment of earthquake urgency builds upon the principles of long-term prediction, incorporating dynamic tracking of fault movement, fault stress states, and seismic source anomalies. Overall, this approach combines probabilistic predictions based on seismic source models with empirical predictions derived from earthquake indicators. This study systematically presents the conceptual framework and technical system for tracking seismic trends over the next 1—3 years and assessing the urgency of long-term hazardous zones in the continental region of China. It provides a brief overview of various prediction methods, covering basic principles, technical approaches, and medium-term anomalous characteristics. Finally, based on the practice of medium-term prediction and recent research progress, the study highlights the research needs for understanding the gestation and occurrence processes of strong continental earthquakes, their precursor mechanisms, and outlines future prospects for earthquake research in China. From a business perspective, it is hoped that the development direction of medium-term forecasting can be further clarified through the phased summarization of the technical system, tracking concepts, and forecasting methods. From a scientific perspective, the development of medium-term prediction identifies basic scientific and technological needs, including the integration of field and source concepts, foundational theoretical frameworks, and key issues in earthquake dynamics. These efforts are expected to contribute to basic research in earthquake prediction and the advancement of forecasting practices.

Key words: Medium-term earthquake forecast, Long-term seismic hazard zones, Seismic trends over 1—3 years, The urgency of seismic risks in long-term hazardous zones

中图分类号:

P315.7

邵志刚, 刘琦, 潘正洋, 王武星, 武艳强, 周斌, 孟令媛, 孙小龙, 冯蔚, 王芃, 魏文薪, 刘晓霞, 尹晓菲, 王振宇, 戴娅琼, 解滔, 闫伟, 刁洋洋. 中国陆区未来1—3年地震趋势与长期危险区发震紧迫程度预测研究[J]. 地震, 2025, 45(1): 214-260.

SHAO Zhi-gang, LIU Qi, PAN Zheng-yang, WANG Wu-xing, WU Yan-qiang, ZHOU Bin, MENG Ling-yuan, SUN Xiao-long, FENG Wei, WANG Peng, WEI Wen-xin, LIU Xiao-xia, YIN Xiao-fei, WANG Zhen-yu, DAI Ya-qiong, XIE Tao, YAN Wei, DIAO Yang-yang. Prediction of Seismic Trends for the Forthcoming One to Three Years and Evaluation of the Urgency of Earthquake Occurrences in Long-Term Seismic Hazard Zones within Chinese Mainland[J]. EARTHQUAKE, 2025, 45(1): 214-260.

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中国陆区未来1—3年地震趋势与长期危险区发震紧迫程度预测研究

Prediction of Seismic Trends for the Forthcoming One to Three Years and Evaluation of the Urgency of Earthquake Occurrences in Long-Term Seismic Hazard Zones within Chinese Mainland

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