地震自发破裂数值模拟及其在青藏高原的应用进展

doi:10.12196/j.issn.1000-3274.2025.03.007

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 青藏高原内部构造运动活跃、地震活动频繁, 为地震研究提供了天然实验场。基于物理准则的自发破裂数值模拟方法, 能够在揭示动力学及破裂机制中发挥重要作用。从断层建模和数值方法两方面回顾了自发破裂数值模拟的发展, 概述了自发破裂数值模拟的断层几何结构、初始应力、摩擦准则及介质结构等因素在破裂传播、最终滑动分布与震级确定中起到的影响作用, 介绍了目前自发破裂数值模拟在应力施加、介质结构和摩擦准则方面面临的挑战, 对自发破裂数值模拟在强震情景重现、区域地震风险预测与灾害评估等方面的应用进行了回顾。本研究认为未来需要在青藏高原建立长时间尺度、大空间范围、考虑地震周期与相互作用的自发破裂数值模拟模型, 结合断层运动学反演结果、断层闭锁程度为地震破裂情景构建及灾害风险评估提供更加可靠的科学参考。

关键词: 地震自发破裂数值模拟, 青藏高原, 影响因素, 应用展望

Abstract: The Qinghai-Xizang Plateau, characterized by active tectonic movements and frequent seismic activity, serves as a natural laboratory for seismic research. Physics-based spontaneous rupture simulations are crucial in uncovering the dynamics and mechanisms of earthquake rupture. In this study, we review the advancements in spontaneous rupture simulation, focusing on fault modeling and numerical methods. We summarize the influence of factors such as fault geometry, initial stress, frictional criteria, and medium properties on rupture propagation, slip distribution, and final earthquake magnitude. Furthermore, we discuss the challenges faced in dynamic rupture simulations, particularly in constraining stress distribution on fault planes, medium properties, and frictional behavior. Additionally, we review the application of dynamic rupture simulations in reconstructing major earthquake scenarios, predicting seismic hazards, and assessing disaster risks. Looking forward, there is a need to develop dynamic rupture models with extended time scales and spatial coverage, incorporating earthquake cycles and interactions, and combine the kinematic inversion results, such as fault interseismic locking model within the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau. Such models would provide a more reliable scientific basis for construction earthquake rupture scenarios and disaster risk assessment.

Key words: Spontaneous simulation of earthquake, Qinghai-Xizang Plateau, Affecting Factors, Prospects for the application of rupture simulation

中图分类号:

P315.1

熊海程, 李彦川, 王振杰, 单新建, 张国宏, 屈春燕. 地震自发破裂数值模拟及其在青藏高原的应用进展[J]. 地震, 2025, 45(3): 101-120.

XIONG Hai-cheng, LI Yan-chuan, WANG Zhen-jie, SHAN Xin-jian, ZHANG Guo-hong, QU Chun-yan. Earthquake Spontaneous Rupture Simulation and Its Application Progress in the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau[J]. EARTHQUAKE, 2025, 45(3): 101-120.

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