欢迎访问《地震》，
地震

地震 ›› 1998, Vol. 18 ›› Issue (3): 211-218.

• •    下一篇

地震预报探索与张北6.2级地震①

丁鉴海, 陈学忠, 刘杰, 黄雪香, 余素荣   

  1. 中国北京 100036 中国地震局分析预报中心
  • 收稿日期:1998-03-06 修回日期:1998-04-03 出版日期:1998-07-31 发布日期:2022-09-08
  • 作者简介:丁鉴海,男, 1941年11月出生,研究员,主要从事地震前兆、地震预报等研究工作。
  • 基金资助:
    ①国家地震局“九五”科研攻关项目(95-04-01-02-01)

EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION RESEARCH IN CHINA AND ZHANGBEIMS 6.2 EARTHQUAKE

Ding Jianhai, Chen Xuezhong, Liu Jie, Huang Xuexiang, Yu Surong   

  1. Center for Analysis and Prediction, China Seismological Bureau , Beijing 100036, China
  • Received:1998-03-06 Revised:1998-04-03 Online:1998-07-31 Published:2022-09-08

PDF (PC)

摘要： 1998年1月10日在河北省张北县和尚义县之间（41°06′N, 114°18′E）发生6.2级地震,震源深度为10 km。震前一二年发现有明显的地震前兆异常: 4级地震条带明显,区域地震活动增强并出现低b值异常等; 震前数天至数月有赤城、张家口地倾斜异常,阳原、宝昌地电阻率异常,延庆地下水位异常,呼和浩特、北京地磁,地磁低点位移以及热红外等前兆异常。中、短期地震前兆较丰富,临震前兆异常不够明显。
1997、1998年初北京西北至晋、冀、内蒙古交界地区被列为可能发生5~6级地震重点危险区。张北6. 2级地震虽然有较好的年度中期预报,但没有作出临震（几天内）预报。

关键词: 地震预报, 地震前兆异常, 地震重点危险区, 张北6.2级地震

Abstract: An earthquake with MS = 6.2 took place between Zhang bei and Shangyi counties, Hebei province on January 10, 1998. The epicenter is located in the area of 41°06′N , 114°8′E, with the focal depth of 10 km. The obvious earthquake precursory appeared 2 years ago: a significant seismic belt emerged with earthquakes with M≥ 4, regional seismic activity increased and bvalue became lower than before. Several days to several months before the main shock, the precursors were also found, such as ground tilt in Chicheng and Zhangjiakou, geo electric resistivity in Yangyuan and Baochang , water level in Yangqing, geomagnetic field and low-point displacement in Hohhot and Beijing, thermal infrared image in North China, etc. There are more medium-and short-term precursors, but fewer imminent earthquake precursors.
The boundary region of Shanxi Province, Hebei Province and Inner Mongolia, including Zhangbei county, has been listed as a special risk region for earthquake with M = 5~6 since early 1997. In spite of having a clear yearly medium-term prediction, the imminent earthquake prediction failed.

Key words: Earthquake Prediction, Seismic precursory anomal, special risk region for earthquakes, Zhangbei MS 6.2 earthquake