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地震 ›› 1998, Vol. 18 ›› Issue (3): 219-225.

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地震发生中长期预测中的非稳态泊松模型①

刘杰1), 傅征祥1), 孟桂萍2), 尚献坤3)   

  1. 1)中国北京 100036 中国地震局分析预报中心;
    2)中国河南 466000 周口市电视台;
    3)中国河南 466000 周口地区安装公司
  • 收稿日期:1997-09-23 修回日期:1997-12-03 出版日期:1998-07-31 发布日期:2022-09-08
  • 作者简介:刘杰, 男, 1965年8月出生, 副研究员, 1989年8月获硕士学位,主要从事地震活动性、综合地震预报、地震危险性等研究工作。
  • 基金资助:
    ①国家地震局“九五”科研攻关项目(95-04-03-03-03, 95-04-07-02-03)

NONSTATIONARY POISON MODEL FOR MEDIUM-AND LONG-TERM PREDICTION OF EARTHQUAKE OCCURRENCE

Liu Jie1), Fu Zhengxiang1), Meng Guiping2), Shang Xiankun3)   

  1. 1)Center for Analysis and Prediction, CSB, Beijing 100036, China;
    2)Zhoukou Television Station, Zhoukou, Henan 466000, China;
    3)Zhoukou Installation company, Zhoukou, Henan 466000, China
  • Received:1997-09-23 Revised:1997-12-03 Online:1998-07-31 Published:2022-09-08

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摘要： 基于实际地震的发生在一个活动期内具有加速活动的特点,作者提出一种非稳态泊松模型。与稳态泊松模型中地震发生率ν为常数相对应,该模型中地震发生率ν是随时间呈指数性增加。采用对数似然方法,通过使其最大化来确定模型的参数。作者以一个假想的时间序列,讨论了非稳态与稳态泊松模型之间的差别,并将该模型实际应用于华北地区汾渭地震带和华北平原地震带的中长期预测中。

关键词: 非稳态泊松模型, 对数似然法, 中长期地震预测, 华北历史地震

Abstract: A nonstationary Poisson model is proposed based on the characteristics of acceleration activity of earthquake occurrence in a seismic activity period. The seismic occurrence rate ν in the model increases exponentially with time, comparing with that the occurrencerate is a constant in stationary Poisson model. The log-likelihood method is used, and the parameters of the model can be obtained by maximizing its function. The authors discuss the difference between nonstationary Poisson model and stationary Poisson model by an assumed temporal sequence. The model is also used to the medium-and long term earthquake prediction along Fenwei seismic zone and North China plain seismic zone in North China.

Key words: Nonstationary Poisson model, Log-likelihood method, Medium-and long-term prediction, Historical earthquakes in North China