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地震 ›› 1998, Vol. 18 ›› Issue (4): 337-347.

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应用综合前兆异常月频度判定地震进入中短期的研究①

李献智, 侯建盛   

  1. 中国北京 100036 中国地震局分析预报中心
  • 收稿日期:1998-02-05 修回日期:1998-03-02 发布日期:2022-09-23
  • 作者简介:李献智,男, 1940年11月出生,研究员,主要从事地震综合预报等研究工作。
  • 基金资助:
    ①国家地震局“九五”科研攻关项目（95-04)部分成果

APPLICATION OF THE MONTHLY FREQUENCY OF COMPREHENSIVE PRECURSORY ANOMALIES TO DETERMINATION OF SHORT-AND MEDIUM-TERM SEISMICITY

Li Xianzhi, Hou Jiansheng   

  1. Center for Analysis and Prediction, CSB, Beijing 100036. China
  • Received:1998-02-05 Revised:1998-03-02 Published:2022-09-23

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摘要： 应用震后资料总结和震前所判定的异常资料研究了 1975~1996年的44个震次。结果表明,地震孕育进入中短期时无论是近场前兆异常、远场前兆异常,还是远、近场均有的前兆异常,其综合前兆异常月频度一般同时呈现出2个明显特征:①月频度累加曲线呈现为非线性加速形 态;②同时月频度变化速率出现正异常。二者相结合,一般可以判定出地震孕育是否进人中短期阶段。由于研究内容广泛和取得的中短期特征明显,因此,所得结果具有较强的可操作性和普遍性。

关键词: 孕震阶段, 前兆异常, 综合前兆特征

Abstract: The precursory data observed before and after the 44 earthquakes occurred during 1975~1996 are analyzed. The research results show that when the seismicity entered into the short- and medium- term stag of earthquake preparation, the monthly frequency of comprehensive precursors, including the far-field precursors, the near-field anomalies and near-field far-field combined precursors are significantly characterized with the following aspects: 1. The cumulative curves of monthly frequency accelerate nonlinearly; 2. Variation rate of monthly frequency is positive. According to the two features, it is easy to distinguish the short-term and medium-term seismicity. The method can be used widely and easily based on the broadly studied data set and the obvious anomalies.

Key words: Preparation stage, Precursory anomaly, Comprehensive precursory characteristics