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地震 ›› 1998, Vol. 18 ›› Issue (4): 383-390.

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1998年1月10日张北-尚义6.2级地震前的区域地震活动异常和预报①

王俊国1), 吴晓芝1), 刁桂苓2), 崔晓峰1), 冯萍芳1)   

  1. 1)中国天津 300201 天津市地震局;
    2)中国石家庄 050021 河北省地震局
  • 收稿日期:1998-03-17 修回日期:1998-06-15 发布日期:2022-09-23
  • 作者简介:王俊国,男,1951年6月出生,髙级工程师,主要从事地震学、地震预报研究等工作。

REGIONAL SEISMICITY ANOMALY AND PREDICTION BEFORE ZHANGBEI-SHANGYI M6.2 EARTHQUAKE OCCURRED ON JANUARY 10,1998

Wang Junguo, Wu Xiaozhi, Diao Guiling, Cui Xiaofeng, Feng Pingfang   

  1. Seismological Bureau of Tianjin Municipality, Tianjin 300201, China
  • Received:1998-03-17 Revised:1998-06-15 Published:2022-09-23

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摘要： 1998年1月10日张北-尚义发生了6.2级地震,这次地震前区域地震活动显示出了明显的异常特征,中期预报效果比较成功,对于这次地震没有作出短临预报,这既有地震孕育过程的复杂性和地震预报的髙难度问题,也存在一定程度的预报技术思路问题。近几年来作者对在北京西北的晋、冀、内蒙古交界地区形成的以地震活动条带为代表的多项地震活动异常给予关注,现反思张北-尚义6.2级地震之前的某些前兆异常现象和预报过程,对于今后的地震预报研究 具有借鉴的意义。

关键词: 地震活动性, 地震预报, 张北-尚义地震

Abstract: After the M6.4 Baotou earthquake in Inner Mongolia in May 1996, the M6.2 South Yellow Sea earthquake in November 1996, the M6.2 Zhangbei-Shangyi earthquake on January 10,1998,another M≥6 earthquake occurred in North China. Before this earthquake, regional seismicity showed obvious anomalous characteristics and the medium-term prediction was quite successful. Unfortunately, the short-term and imminent predictions were not made for this earthquake. It was not only due to the complexity of earthquake development process and the extreme difficulty in earthquake prediction, but also to a certain problem regarding the technical thinking for earthquake prediction. In recent years, the authors have paid great attention to the seismic conditions in north-west Beijing —the boundary area of Shanxi, Hebei and Inner Mongolia, and have discovered many items of seismicity anomalies characterized by bands of seismicity. To rethink the precursory anomaly phenomena and the processof prediction before the M6.2 Zhangbei-Shangyi earthquake will be of great significance for the earthquake prediction in the future.

Key words: Seismic activity, Earthquade prediction, Zhangbei-Shangyi earthquake