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地震 ›› 1999, Vol. 19 ›› Issue (2): 149-154.

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地震前地壳形变异常分布的非均匀性特征①

牛安福1), 张雁滨1), 柯丽君1), 刘祖荫2), 郑文衡3)   

  1. 1)中国武昌 430071 中国地震局地震研究所;
    2)中国昆明 650041 云南省地震局;
    3)中国武昌 430074 华中理工大学
  • 收稿日期:1998-03-12 修回日期:1998-06-30 出版日期:1999-04-30 发布日期:2022-09-19
  • 作者简介:牛安福,男, 1964年 8月出生, 副研究员, 1996年获博士学位,主要从事地震孕育过程的演化、前兆异常强度变化、地震预报及深部构造解释研究工作。
  • 基金资助:
    ①地震科学联合基金 (197066)资助, 国家科技攻关项目 (96-913-01-01, 95-04-05-03)的部分成果

ON THE HETEROGENEITY OF THE ANOMALY INTENSITY OF THE CRUSTAL DEFORMATION PRIOR TO EARTHQUAKES

Niu Anfu1), Zhang Yanbin1), Ke Lijun1), Liu Zuy in2), Zheng Wenheng3)   

  1. 1)Institute of Seismology of CSB, Wuchang 430071, China;
    2)Seismological Bureau of Yun nan Province, Kunming 650041, China;
    3)Mechanic Dept. of Central China Science-Technology Univ., Wuchang 430074, China
  • Received:1998-03-12 Revised:1998-06-30 Online:1999-04-30 Published:2022-09-19

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摘要： 利用 F 综合检验的理论,讨论了形变异常的定量化及检测准则。 利用潮汐观测中的非潮汐形变讨论了大同和丽江地震前形变异常分布的非均匀性,并与地震活动的特征进行了对比。结果表明,震前 1. 5年左右,能检测出区域性的准同步形变异常,出现的异常空区可能是未来的地震危险区,且形变异常空区在震前应有强化或补偿现象。因而,在地震危险区的判定中首先面临的问题是地震孕育所处阶段的判定 ;在无法判别地震孕育阶段的情况下,形变异常台站周围和异常强度场中所出现的形变异常空区都是危险的。

关键词: 地震活动性, 异常强度定量化, 异常非均匀分布性

Abstract: In this paper, the detection criterion and quantification of deformation anomaly inten-sity on the basis of the F-detection theory have been discussed. We have applied these def-initio ns to study the heterogeneity of anomalous deformation intensity before the Datong and Lijiang earthquakes by using the observed deformation data, and have also compared the research results with earthquake activity characteristics. It is demonstrated that the quasi-synchronous deformation anomalies about 1. 5 year before the earthquake in a region can be detected, and then the anomaly intensity should be increased in the former anomalygap before earthquake occurrence. Therefore the authors consider that the key of earth-quake prediction is to identify the stages of earthquake preparation because the precursors may occur in different forms during various preparation stages.

Key words: Earthquake activity Anomaly intensity, Heterogeneous distribution of anomaly intensity