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地震

地震 ›› 1999, Vol. 19 ›› Issue (3): 223-229.

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样本条件对加卸载响应比计算结果的影响分析

王海涛1), 彭克银2), 庄建仓2), 张永仙2), 尹祥础2)   

  1. 1)中国乌鲁木齐 830011 新疆维吾尔自治区地震局;
    2)中国北京 100036 中国地震局分析预报中心
  • 收稿日期:1998-09-21 修回日期:1998-10-15 出版日期:1999-07-31 发布日期:2022-07-14
  • 作者简介:王海涛,男,1961年2月出生,副研究员,1995年在读博士生,主要从事地震分析预报研究工作。
  • 基金资助:
    中国国家自然科学基金会资助项目(19732060),中国地震局“九五”科研攻关项目(96-913)

ANALYSIS ON THE EFFECT OF SAMPLE CONDITIONS ON THE RESULTS OF LOAD /UNLOAD RESPONSE RATIO

Wang Haitao1), Peng Keyin2), Zhuang Jiancang2), Zhang Yongxian2), Yin Xiangchu2)   

  1. 1) Center for Analysis and Prediction, CSB, Beijing 100036, China;
    2) Seismological Bureau of Xinjiang Autonomous Region, Wulumuqi 830011, China
  • Received:1998-09-21 Revised:1998-10-15 Online:1999-07-31 Published:2022-07-14

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摘要： 基于随机 Posson 模型和Gutenberg-Richter 关系, 构造在10年尺度内样本量从300到5000的若干组模拟地震数据,计算分析各种样本条件下的加卸载响应比Y 时间进程变化。结果表明,计算样本的震级上限Mt 相对于logN-M 关系中拟合线性外推最大震级MT 的变化对Y的异常分布有一定影响,其影响随地震样本量从小到大而明显减小。当滑动计算时间窗内地震样本为几十个量级, Mt 取为MT -1.5(或至2. 0)时,随机出现Y 大于2.0的高值异常分布频度明显降低。而当地震样本量达到上百个以上量级, Mt 取为MT-0. 0(或0. 5)时, Y大于2.0的高异常值随机出现频度即极低。在实际地震资料的Y计算中若注意Mt 的选取后,其结果的稳定性和异常的可信度将得到显著提高。

关键词: 样本条件, 震级上限, 模拟地震, 加卸载响应比

Abstract: Based on the stochastic Poisson Model and the Gutenberg-Richestlaw, we simulated a set of earthquake catalog ues, from 300 to 5000 events in each, and calculated how the load /unload response ratio (LU RR), namely Y, varies with time under different sample conditions. The results show that the difference between upper magnitude threshold Mt used in the calculation and the maximum magnitude extrapolated from the linear relation of log N~M has an influence on the distribution of Y. The effect decreases rapidly when the sample size of the earthquake events increases. When the number of events in the sliding time window for calculating Y increases to a quantity of several dozens, and Mt is about MT-1. 5 (or to 2.0), Y gets a much lower probabi lity to be a high value greater than 2. 0. When the above number of events reaches an order of mag nitude of hundreds, and even Mt is about MT -0.0 (or to 0.5), Y also gets a very low probability to be a high value greater than 2.0. This research shows that if the upper magnitude threshold MT is considered when calculating Y from real earthquake catalog ues, the stability of Y and the reliability of its anomalies will be much improved.

Key words: Sample condition, Upper magnitude, Simulating earthquake, LURR