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地震 ›› 2001, Vol. 21 ›› Issue (1): 59-62.

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中国大陆地震活跃期和平静期的b值与地震趋势研究*

陈学忠, 吕晓健, 王慧敏   

  1. 中国地震局分析预报中心,北京 100036
  • 发布日期:2022-10-27
  • 作者简介:陈学忠(1963-), 男, 重庆市人,副研究员, 1995年获博士学位, 主要从事地震成因、地震预报、前兆机理等研究。

B value of the seismically active and quiescent periods and research of seismicty tendency in china's continent

CHEN Xue-zhong, LU Xiao-jian, WANG Hui-min   

  1. Center for Anal ysis and Prediction, CSB, Beijing 100036, China
  • Published:2022-10-27

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摘要： 计算了中国大陆5个地震活跃期和4个地震平静期的b值。地震活跃期的b值明显比地震平静期的b值低,地震活跃期的b值为0.72～0.76,平均为0.75,地震平静期的b值为0.86～1.06,平均为0.97。截止到2000年3月,第五轮回的活跃期b值为0.87,介于地震平静期与地震活跃期的平均值之间,明显高于地震活跃期的b值。因此,中国大陆从1988年开始的第五轮回的地震活跃期可能还没有结束,还可能发生较大的(7级)地震。

关键词: 地震活跃期, 地震平静期, b值, 地震趋势, 中国大陆

Abstract: B values of five seismically active periods and four sei smically quiescent in China's continent arecalculated. The results show that theb value of the sei smically active period is obviously low er than that of the seismically quiescent period. The b value of the seismically activ e period is betw een 0.72 and 0.76, and tha tofthe seismically quiescent is in the range from 0.86 to 1.06. The mean ofbvalue of the seismically active and quiescent periods is 0.75 and 0.97 respectiv ely. Up to March 2000, theb value of the fif th seismically active period is 0.87, betw een the mean of bvalue of the seismically active period and that of seismically quiescent period, and is obviously higher than that of the sei smical ly active e period. Therefore, the fif th seismically active period beginning in 1988 in China's continent might not end yet, there could be some strong er earthquakes with M≥7.0 occurring in the future.

Key words: Seismically active period, Seismically quiescent period, b value, Seismicity tendency, The mainland of China

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