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地震 ›› 2003, Vol. 23 ›› Issue (3): 36-42.

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地震预测中应当遵循的几条预测学基本原理

洪时中   

  1. 成都市地震局, 四川成都 610015
  • 收稿日期:2002-08-01 修回日期:2002-10-16 出版日期:2003-07-31 发布日期:2021-12-21
  • 作者简介:洪时中(1943-), 安徽安庆人, 研究员, 主要从事地震活动性、地震统计预测、非线性在地震科学中的应用等研究。

Earthquake prediction and some fundamentals of prognostics

HONG Shi-zhong   

  1. Seismological Bureau of Chengdu, Chengdu 610015, China
  • Received:2002-08-01 Revised:2002-10-16 Online:2003-07-31 Published:2021-12-21

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摘要： 地震预测应当遵循信息不增原理、客观性原理、自洽性原理、可检验性原理(可证伪性原理) 和简洁性原理这样几条预测学的基本原理。笔者用贝叶斯公式阐明了地震与异常之间的概率关系, 并提出了I预测≤I观测, G外推<G内符, N样本>>N判据, N样本>>N参数>N变量以及N震例>N判据这样几个关系式。自觉地运用上述原理和公式将有助于推动地震预测的进步。

关键词: 地震预测, 预测学, 信息论, 客观性, 自洽性, 可检验性, 简洁性

Abstract: Earthquake prediction should keep to some fundamentals of Prognostics, which include principle of information non-increase, principle of objectivity, principle of self-he relation between probability of earthquakes and probability of anomalies is educed from Bayesian formula.Several inequality is introduced:Iprec.≤Iobs., Gout <Gin, Nsamp.>>Ncrit., Nsamp.>>Npar.>Nvar.and Nearthq.>Ncr it..Here I prec.-information of prediction, Iobs.information of observation, Gout out-ofsample prediction efficiency (grade), Gin in-sample prediction efficiency (grade), Nsamp.-the number of sample (sample size), Ncrit.the number of criterions used in prediction, Npar.the number of parameters, Nvar.the number of variables and Nearthq.the number of earthquakes.Conscious application of the above principles and formulas will conducive to the improvement of earthquake prediction.

Key words: Earthquake prediction, Prognostics, Information theory, Objectivity, Self-consistency, Testability, Principle of succinctness (Occam's Razor)

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