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地震

地震 ›› 2004, Vol. 24 ›› Issue (2): 53-58.

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地震预测模型优化方法研究

王晓青1, 邵辉成2, 丁香1   

  1. 1.中国地震局分析预报中心, 北京 100036;
    2.陕西省地震局, 陕西 西安 710068
  • 出版日期:2004-04-30 发布日期:2021-11-29
  • 作者简介:王晓青(1963-), 男, 湖北应城人, 研究员, 1987年获硕士研究生学位, 主要从事地震危险预测与灾害损失预测, 遥感与GIS应用、 软件开发等研究。
  • 基金资助:
    地震科学联合基金项目(103075); “十五”中国地震局科研攻关项目

Study on efficiency evaluation and optimization of earthquake forecast method

WANG Xiao-qing1, SHAO Hui-cheng2, DING Xiang1   

  1. 1. Center for Analysis and Prediction, CSB, Beijing 100036;
    2. Seismological Bureau of Shanxi Province, Xi'an 710068, China
  • Online:2004-04-30 Published:2021-11-29

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摘要： 在分析现有基于观测指标“异常-正常”的“二态”地震前兆模式不足的基础上, 提出了异常可表现为多种状态的“多态”前兆模式, 给出“多态”前兆模式下预测效能判定指标, 进一步提出了基于预测效能最优的单项预测模型参数的选择方法。 在广义(时间、 空间、 时-空联合的预测指标)“多态”前兆模式下, 将所建立的模型应用于我国华北和南北带地区, 分别确定了两地区活断层预测地震(MS≥6)空间分布的最优模型(分别为断层周围20 km、 30 km)及其预测效能(分别为0.42、 0.34)。

关键词: “多态”前兆模式, 地震预测, 效能评估, 最优模型

Abstract: The paper analyzed the deficiency of “binary state” (either abnormal or normal) earthquake precursory model and introduced the “multi-state” precursory model which refers to the fact that multi states of the abnormal of an earthquake forecast index exists. The efficiency evaluation method is put forward in the paper according to the “multi-state” precursory model. Based on the new concept, an optimization method for parameters of earthquake forecast model under the condition of maximization of forecast efficiency is developed. According to the general “multi-state” precursory model in which the forecast index can be in spatial, temporal, or spatial-temporal united domain, the model optimization method is applied to the North China and North-South Seismic Zone in China. The results demonstrate that optimization models to forecast location of potential earthquakes with MS≥6 in relation to the latest (Q3~Q4) active faults are the region around the faults, whose widths are 20 km and 30 km respectively in the North China and South-North Seismic Zone in China. The corresponding forecast efficiency values are 0.42 and 0.34.

Key words: “Multi state” precursory mode, Earthquake forecast, Efficiency evaluation, Parameter optimization model

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