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地震 ›› 2004, Vol. 24 ›› Issue (4): 113-118.

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云南地区强震前兆短期综合异常特征研究

林辉, 张平, 唐采, 付虹   

  1. 云南省地震局, 云南 昆明 650041
  • 出版日期:2004-10-31 发布日期:2021-11-29
  • 作者简介:林辉(1963-), 男, 福建福州人, 工程师, 主要从事地震预报等研究。
  • 基金资助:
    地震科学联合基金项目(102073)

Study on synthetical anomaly characteristics of short-term precursors of strong earthquakes in Yunnan area

LIN Hui, ZHANG Ping, TANG Cai, FU Hong   

  1. Earthquake Administration of Yunnan Province, Kunming 650041, China
  • Online:2004-10-31 Published:2021-11-29

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摘要： 用斜率k和相关系数r值提取云南地区水氡、 水汞、 水温、 地磁的单项短期异常, 用群体非均匀度计算方法对各手段选取的多点观测资料进行计算, 提取综合指标。 研究结果表明, 云南地区M≥5.5地震, 前兆的群体突变异常较为显著, 对M≥5.5地震有较好的短期预报效能, 并通过置信度为97.5%的R检验。

关键词: 短期异常提取, 群体非均匀度计算, M≥5.5地震预报, 云南地区

Abstract: the single short-term anomaly of water radon, mercury, water temperature and geomagnetism is extracted by using slope k and interrelated coefficient r. And the synthetic indexes are extracted by means of calculating the data got from different observational points through Group Uneven Method. The results show that in Yunnan area, for the earthquakes with M≥ 5.5, the earthquake precursors have significant characteristics of group mutation. The characteristics are of the ideal short-term effect for the earthquake prediction and its credibility has been proved to reach 97.5% by R-check Method.

Key words: Extraction of short-term precursor, Group uneven calculation, Prediction of earthquakes M≥ 5.5, Yunnan area

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