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地震 ›› 2006, Vol. 26 ›› Issue (1): 138-144.

• 学术讨论 • 上一篇    下一篇

印度尼西亚巨震对华东地震形势的影响

王行舟1, 陈宇卫2, 施行觉1   

  1. 1.中国科学技术大学地球和空间科学学院, 安徽 合肥 230026;
    2.安徽省地震局, 安徽 合肥 230031
  • 收稿日期:2005-05-09 修回日期:2005-08-05 发布日期:2021-11-01
  • 作者简介:王行舟(1973-), 男, 安徽合肥市人, 2004年在读硕士研究生, 主要从事地球物理及岩石实验研究。
  • 基金资助:
    安徽省地震局重点基金资助(200403)

Influence of large earthquakes in Indonesia on earthquake tendency in East China

WANG Xing-zhou1, CHEN Yu-wei2, SHI Xing-jue1   

  1. 1. Department of Earth and Space Sciences, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei 230026;
    2. Earthquake Administration of Anhui Province, Hefei 230031, China
  • Received:2005-05-09 Revised:2005-08-05 Published:2021-11-01

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摘要： 根据印度板块和缅甸次板块运动GPS观测资料, 分析了印度尼西亚巨震的发震构造背景, 震后印、 缅板块的正应力减小, 剪应力相对增大, 剪应力是对华东地震形势产生影响的主要动力源。 简单统计印缅板块地震后3年内华东地区发生中强震的对应组数为21组, 利用概率增益公式得出印、 缅板块地震和华东地区中强震的对应关系是有物理基础的对应, 而不是随机的对应。 通过β分布函数预测华东地区未来3年发生5级以上地震的概率为0.67, 风险经验概率为0.65。

关键词: 板块运动, 概率增益, 分布函数

Abstract: Based on GPS data that Indian tectonic plate and Burma tectonic plate are moving, the earthquake structure background of large earthquakes in Indonesia is analyzed. The normal stress decreased and share stress increased in Indian and Burma tectonic Plates after large earthquakes, share stress is the main dynamic source influence on earthquake tendency in east China. Simple statistics show that there are 21 sets of corresponding moderately strong earthquakes occurred in East China in 3 years after India and Burma tectonic plate earthquakes. By using the formula of probability gain, we can know that this correspondence earthquake relation between East China and Indian and Burma tectonic plates is a correspondent with physical function, not random correspondent relation. Through β distribution function, we can predict that the probability of earthquakes with MS≥5.0 is 0.67 in future 3 years in East China. The risk probability is 0.65.

Key words: Plate movement, Probability gain, Distribution function

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