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地震 ›› 2010, Vol. 30 ›› Issue (2): 46-53.

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中国大陆地区强震的逆向追踪方法研究

刘文兵1,2   

  1. 1.中国地震局地球物理研究所, 北京 100081;
    2.天津市地震局, 天津 300201
  • 收稿日期:2009-06-23 修回日期:2009-09-27 出版日期:2010-04-30 发布日期:2021-10-18
  • 作者简介:刘文兵(1977-), 男, 四川仁寿人, 在读博士生, 主要从事地震活动性分析、 地震发生机理和数字地震波相关研究。
  • 基金资助:
    国家重点基础研究发展计划(2008CB425704)、 中国地震局2006年地震联合基金项目(606053)和2008年天津市科技支撑计划重点项目(07ZCGYSF03100)联合资助

Reverse Tracing of the Seismicity before Strong Earthquakes in Mainland China

LIU Wen-bing1,2   

  1. 1. Institute of Geophysics China Earthquake Administration, Beijing 100081, China;
    2. Earthquake Administration of Tianjin Municipality, Tianjin 300201, China
  • Received:2009-06-23 Revised:2009-09-27 Online:2010-04-30 Published:2021-10-18

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摘要： 强震发生前, 震源附近的地震活动往往会呈现出一些空间和时间的异常特征, 分析和提取这些异常特征的方法较多。 本文采用了与常规强震预测方法迥异的地震预测方法地震活动反向追踪法(Reverse Tracing of Precursors, RTP), 对中国大陆近30年来的几个MS≥7.5大震(含2008年5月12日汶川MS8.0地震)进行了探索性的回溯研究。 结果表明, 该方法在中国大陆大震预测方面有一定的适用性, 并利用该方法对中国大陆地区的未来强震活动做了一定的预测。

关键词: 中国大陆, 反向追踪, 地震链, 中期图像, 地震预测

Abstract: Some temporal-spatial phenomenon of abnormal seismic activity tends to occur around the focus of succeeding strong earthquakes, and there are several methods to analyze and extract these characteristics. A strong earthquake predicting method named RTP (Reverse Tracing of Precursory), which is differed from conventional methods, has been introduced in this paper and used to perform some retrospective study on several MS≥7.5 earthquake (including the May 12, 2008, Wenchuan MS8.0 earthquake) in the past 30 years from mainland China. To some degree, the result of the study shows that this method is applicable to the strong earthquake prediction in the mainland of China. At last, we make a prediction of strong seismic activities in mainland of China.

Key words: Mainland China, Reverse tracing, Earthquake chain, Medium-term pattern, Earthquake prediction

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