亚洲国家地震生命损失的标度律及中长期预测研究

地震 ›› 2011, Vol. 31 ›› Issue (1): 52-57.

亚洲国家地震生命损失的标度律及中长期预测研究

傅征祥¹, 孙丽娜², 金学申², 齐玉妍², 邵辉成³

1.中国地震局地震预测研究所, 北京 100036;
2.河北省地震局, 河北石家庄 050021;
3.陕西省地震局, 陕西西安 710068

收稿日期:2010-01-16 修回日期:2010-08-17 出版日期:2011-01-31 发布日期:2021-09-08
作者简介:傅征祥(1941-), 男, 上海市人, 研究员, 主要从事地震活动性和地震预测等研究。
基金资助:
国家科技攻关计划项目(2008BAC44B020302)

Scaling Laws of Earthquake Fatalities and Long- term Forecast for Some Countries in Asia

FU Zheng-xiang¹, SUN Li-na², JIN Xue-shen², QI Yu-yan², SHAO Hui-cheng³

1. Institute of Earthquake Science, CEA, Beijing 100036, China;
2. Earthquake Administration of Hebei Province, Shijiazhuan 050021, China;
3. Earthquake Administration of Shanxi Province, Xi′an 710068, China

Received:2010-01-16 Revised:2010-08-17 Online:2011-01-31 Published:2021-09-08

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 研究了亚洲11个重要地震国家或地区(阿富汗, 巴基斯坦, 菲律宾, 日本, 伊朗, 印度, 印尼, 中国大陆, 中国华北地区, 中国南北带)近代地震造成人员死亡率的自相似指数标度律, 并将其应用于泊松模型中, 预测2025年前亚洲重要地震国家发生地震生命损失千人、万人和十万人以上巨灾事件的概率。其中, 中国大陆华北地区、日本和印尼发生万人以上死亡的巨灾概率可能较高。

关键词: 地震人员死亡度, 标度律, 亚洲国家

Abstract: This paper studied the self-similar power scaling laws of earthquake fatalities for eleven countries or regions in Asia (including Afghanistan, Pakistan, Philippines, Japan, Iran, India, Indonesia, China continent, north China and the South-North Zone of China). The scaling laws have been used in long-term forecast of earthquake fatalities before 2025 based on the Poisson model. The results give occurrence probabilities of earthquake fatalities (≥1000, ≥10000 and ≥100000 persons) for eleven countries or regions in Asia. Specially Japan, Indonesia, and north China would have higher occurrence probabilities of earthquake fatalities of more than 10000 persons.

Key words: Earthquake fatalities, Scaling law, Asia

中图分类号:

P315.7

傅征祥, 孙丽娜, 金学申, 齐玉妍, 邵辉成. 亚洲国家地震生命损失的标度律及中长期预测研究[J]. 地震, 2011, 31(1): 52-57.

FU Zheng-xiang, SUN Li-na, JIN Xue-shen, QI Yu-yan, SHAO Hui-cheng. Scaling Laws of Earthquake Fatalities and Long- term Forecast for Some Countries in Asia[J]. EARTHQUAKE, 2011, 31(1): 52-57.

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