中长期地震危险性概率预测中的统计检验方法I: Molchan图表法

地震 ›› 2011, Vol. 31 ›› Issue (2): 106-113.

中长期地震危险性概率预测中的统计检验方法I: Molchan图表法

蒋长胜¹, 张浪平², 韩立波¹, 来贵娟¹

1.中国地震局地球物理研究所, 北京 100081;
2.中国地震局地震预测研究所, 北京 100036

收稿日期:2010-10-21 修回日期:2011-02-09 出版日期:2011-04-30 发布日期:2021-09-09
作者简介:蒋长胜(1979-), 男, 内蒙古额尔古纳人, 博士, 副研究员, 主要从事数字地震学和地震预测等研究。
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金青年基金项目(40804010)和国家科技支撑计划项目(2006BAC01B02-01-02)资助

Probabilistic Forecasting Method of Long-term and Intermediate-term Seismic Hazard I: Molchan Error Diagram

JIANG Chang-sheng¹, ZHANG Lang-ping², HAN Li-bo¹, LAI Gui-juan¹

1. Institute of Geophysics, CEA, Beijing 100081, China;
2. Institute of Earthquake Science, CEA, Beijing 100036, China

Received:2010-10-21 Revised:2011-02-09 Online:2011-04-30 Published:2021-09-09

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 对中长期地震危险性概率预测结果的统计检验是地震预测预报的重要研究内容, 采用通用的统计检验方法是促进地震预测理论、模型“无障碍”交流和发展的必要条件。本文通过对青藏高原东北缘地区PI算法和RI算法回溯性预测结果统计检验的实例, 介绍了如何运用CSEP计划中已常规采用的Molchan图表法进行地震概率预测统计检验和分析, 并分别考虑了网格权重和地震活动权重两种算法计算“时空占有率”的情况。结果表明, Molchan 图表法可通过显著性水平α和概率增益Gain有效地评价概率预测模型的预测能力。此外, 对于同样的预测结果, 在考察不同的预测策略时得到的统计检验结果也可能不同。其中地震活动权重相对网格权重采用更为严格的统计检验。

关键词: 中长期地震危险性概率预测, 统计检验, Molchan图表法

Abstract: The statistical test of long-term and intermediate-term seismic hazard probabilistic forecasting is an important aspect of earthquake forecast/prediction. Using general statistical test method is one of the necessary conditions for promoting earthquake forecast/prediction theory and model accessibility exchange and development. Based on the retrospective forecast results of PI and RI algorithm in the northeastern marginal region of the Qingzang plateau, we try to introduce how to apply the Molchan error diagram to do the statistical test of earthquake probabilistic forecast, and the situation of spatial-box number weighted and seismic rate weighted are considered respectively to calculate the fraction of space-time occupied by alarm. The result shows that the Molchan error diagram can evaluate the probabilistic earthquake forecast model effectively by using the significance level α and the probability gain. Furthermore, the significant different testing results also can be found when different forecast/prediction strategies are employed even if for the same forecast/prediction results.

Key words: Seismic hazard probabilistic forecasting, Statistical test, Molchan error diagram

中图分类号:

P315.7

蒋长胜, 张浪平, 韩立波, 来贵娟. 中长期地震危险性概率预测中的统计检验方法I: Molchan图表法[J]. 地震, 2011, 31(2): 106-113.

JIANG Chang-sheng, ZHANG Lang-ping, HAN Li-bo, LAI Gui-juan. Probabilistic Forecasting Method of Long-term and Intermediate-term Seismic Hazard I: Molchan Error Diagram[J]. EARTHQUAKE, 2011, 31(2): 106-113.

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