基于应变率场的全球地震活动特征模拟探索

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 本文提出利用全球应变率资料模拟全球地震活动特征的基本思想, 并作了初步探索。利用GSRM的全球应变率场结果, 初步设计了模拟全球地震活动时空分布特征的细胞自动机模型。该模型把地球考虑为一个自组织的整体系统, 制定了细胞自动机的演化规则, 获得了模拟的人工地震目录。初步的模拟结果基本反映了全球地震活动的主要分布特征, 体现了全球构造活动强弱的主要格局, 初步达到了利用GPS等实测资料计算的应变率作为细胞自动机网格状态及其改变量来模拟复杂的全球地震活动特征的实验目的。

关键词: 全球地震活动, 全球应变率场, 细胞自动机模型, 模拟

Abstract: Relationship between strain rate field observed by GPS and global distribution of strong earthquakes is analyzed in this work. How to recognize the characteristics of global seismic activities with space observation technology? A preliminary model of cellular automata that could simulate the global seismic activities both in time and space has been established based on the results of global strain rate field provided by GSRM Program. The grid of the model is evenly divided, which is consistent with that of GSRM. Status of each cell is its strain state, and its adjustment is according to the evolution rules. Maximum shear strain criterion is adopted in the evolution of the cellular automata. The threshold for cells in surface expansion is 80% of that for those in compression. The preliminary model could in general simulate the main characteristics of the distribution of the global seismic activities. It could exhibit in general the global distribution of weak and active tectonic activities. Although the preliminary cellular automata model needs to be improved in many aspects, the result suggests the possibility of modeling the general features of the rather complicated global seismic activities based on the strain rates obtained by GPS and other observations.

Key words: Simulation of global seismic activity, Global strain rate, Cellular Automata

中图分类号:

P315.7

王武星, 石耀霖. 基于应变率场的全球地震活动特征模拟探索[J]. 地震, 2013, 33(4): 123-134.

WANG Wu-xing, SHI Yao-lin. A Preliminary Simulation of Global Seismic Activities based on Global Strain Rate[J]. EARTHQUAKE, 2013, 33(4): 123-134.

参考文献

[1] Gutenberg B, Richter C F. Seismicity of the earth and associated phenomena[M]. Princeton University Press, Princeton, New Jersey, USA, 1954.
[2] 刘肇昌. 板块构造学[M]. 四川科学技术出版社, 1985.
[3] 傅征祥, 刘桂萍, 邵志刚, 等. 板块构造和地震活动性[M]. 北京: 地震出版社, 2009.
[4] Isacks B, Oliver J, Skkes L R. Seismology and new globe tectonics[J]. J Geophys Res, 1968, 73(18): 5855-5899.
[5] Hasegawa A, Umino N, Takagi A. Double-planed deep seismic zone and upper-mantle structure in Northeastern Japan arc[J]. Geophysics Journal of Royal Astronomy Society, 1978, 54: 281-296.
[6] Okada Y. Surface deformation caused by shear and tensile faults in a half-space[J]. Bull Seismol Soc Am, 1985, 75(4): 1135-1154.
[7] Okada Y. Internal deformation due to shear and tensile faults in a half space[J]. Bull seism Soc Am, 1992, 82: 1018-1040.
[8] 陈运泰, 林邦慧, 林中洋, 等. 根据地面形变的观测研究1966年邢台地震的震源过程[J]. 地球物理学报, 1975, 18(3): 164-181.
[9] 陈运泰, 黄立人, 林邦慧, 等. 用大地测量资料反演的1976年唐山地震的位错模式[J]. 地球物理学报, 1979, 22(3): 201-216.
[10] Wang R, Lorenzo-Martin F, Roth F. PSGRN/PSCMP—A new code for calculating co- and post-seismic deformation, geoid and gravity changes based on the viscoelastic-gravitational dislocation theory[J]. Comput Geosci, 2006, 32(4): 527-541.
[11] Pollitz F F. Gravitational viscoelastic postseismic relaxation on a layered spherical Earth[J]. J Geophys Res, 1997, 102, 17921-17941.
[12] 朱岳清, 梅世蓉, 梁北援. 唐山地震孕震过程的三维有限元分析极其在地震预报研究上的意义[J]. 地球物理学报, 1988, 31, 399-409 .
[13] 王妙月, 张美根, 底青云. 地震孕育、发生、发展展动志过程模拟系统[J]. 地震学报, 1999, 21(1): 65-69.
[14] 蔡永恩, 何涛, 王仁. 1976年唐山地震震源动力过程的数值模拟[J]. 地震学报, 1999, 21(4): 469-477.
[15] 白武明, 林邦慧, 陈祖安. 1976年唐山大震发生对华北地区各地块运动与形变影响的数值模拟[J]. 中国科学(D辑), 2003, 33(增), 99-107.
[16] Xing H L, Mora P, Makinouchi A. Finite Element Analysis of Fault end Inuence on Stick-Slip Instability along an Intra-Plate Fault [J]. Pure Appl Geophys, 2004, 161: 2091-2102.
[17] 陈连旺, 张培震, 陆远忠, 等. 川滇地区强震序列库仑破裂应力加卸载效应的数值模拟[J]. 地球物理学报, 2008, 51(5): 1411-1421.
[18] 柳畅, 朱伯靖, 石耀霖. 粘弹性数值模拟龙门山断裂带应力积累及大震复发周期[J]. 地质学报, 2012, 86(1): 157-169.
[19] 沈正康, 王敏, 甘卫军, 等. 中国大陆现今构造应变率场及其动力学成因研究[J]. 地学前缘, 2003, 10(Suppl): 93-100.
[20] 叶正仁, 王建. 中国大陆现今地壳运动的动力学机制[J]. 地球物理学报, 2004, 47(3): 456-461.
[21] Wang H, Liu M, Cao J L, et al. Slip rates and seismic moment deficits on major active faults in mainland China[J]. J Geophys Res, 2011, 116, B02405, doi:10.1029/2010JB007821.
[22] Ozawa S, Nishimura T, Suito H, et al. Coseismic and postseismic slip of the 2011 magnitude-9 Tohoku-Oki earthquake[J]. Nature, 2011, 475: 373-376, doi:10.1038/nature10227.
[23] Burridge R, Knopoff L. Model and theoretical seismicity[J]. Bull Seismol Soc Am, 1967, 57: 341-371.
[24] Mogi K. Seismic activity and earthquake prediction[M]. In Proceedings of The Symposium on Earthquake Prediction Research, 1977. 203-314.
[25] Bak P, Tang C. Earthquakes as self-organized critical phenomena[J]. J Geophys Res, 1989, 92: 331-334.
[26] 朱元清, 石耀霖. 地震活动性研究中的非线性动力学模型[J]. 地球物理学报, 1991, 34(1): 20-31
[27] Shi Y L, Geng L M, Zhang G M. Nonlinear dynamic modeling of earthquake prediction, in Nonlinear Dynamics and Predictability of Geophysical Phenomena[M]. Geophys Monogr Ser, 1994, 83: 81-89, doi:10.1029/GM083p0081 (AGU)
[28] 耿鲁明, 石耀霖, 张国民. 地震活动的简化模型研究[J]. 地震, 1993, 13(1): 68-75.
[29] 张国民, 耿鲁明, 石耀霖. 中国大陆强震轮回活动的计算机模型研究[J]. 中国地震, 1993, 9(1): 20-32.
[30] 陆远忠, 吕悦军, 郑月君. 强震孕育后期地震活动演化的定量表征[J]. 中国地震, 1994, 10(增刊): 12-17.
[31] 刘桂萍, 石耀霖, 马丽. 地震活动的细胞自动机模型[J]. 西北地震学报, 1995, 17(2): 17-25.
[32] 刘杰, 刘桂萍, 李丽, 等. 基于大陆地震活动特点建立的简化动力学模型- 细胞自动机模[J]. 地震, 1999, 19(3): 230-238.
[33] 刘桂萍, 傅征样, 刘杰. 摩擦时间依从的地震活动性细胞自动机模型[J]. 地球物理学报, 2000, 43(2): 203-212.
[34] 刘杰, 石耀霖, 张国民. 基于准三维有限元方法建立的地震活动模型 [J]. 地球物理学报, 2001, 44(6): 814-824.
[35] 朱守彪, 蔡永恩, 刘杰, 等. 利用三维细胞自动机模拟地震活动性 [J]. 北京大学学报(自然科学版), 2006, 42(2): 206-210.
[36] England P C and Molnar P. The field of crustal velocity in Asia calculated from Quaternary rates of slip on faults[J]. Geophys J Int, 1997, 130: 551-582.
[37] Holt W E, Chamot-Rooke N, LePichon X, et al. The velocity field in Asia inferred from Quaternary fault slip rates and GPS observations[J]. J Geophys Res, 2000, 105: 19185-19210.
[38] Kreemer C, Haines J, Holt W E, et al. On the determination of a global strain rate model[J]. Earth Planets Space, 2000a, 52: 765-770.
[39] Kreemer C, Holt W E, Goes S, et al. Active deformation in eastern Indonesia and the Philippines from GPS and seismicity data[J]. J Geophys Res, 2000b, 105: 663-680.
[40] Kreemer C, Holt W E, and Haines A J. An integrated global model of present-day plate motions and plate boundary deformation[J]. Geophys J Int, 2003, 154: 8-34.
[41] Turcotte D L, G Schubert. Geodynamics[M]. Press of John Wiley & Sons, 1980.
[42] Gutenberg B, Richter C F. Seismicity of the Earth[M]. Geological Society of America, 1941, Special Paper 34: 1-133.