中强地震时间预测研究

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 本文假定中强震孕育时, 相应于区域应力场的变化, 地震活动出现相对均匀—不均匀—不均匀增强的过程, 以此为物理基础, 取区域地震的发震时间相关参数组成样本空间, 寻求描述地震事件在时间轴上丛集性的变异系数的变化与相应中强地震发生时间的关系。近几年的实际应用效果表明该研究对中强地震时间预测有意义。

关键词: 地震活动, 地震物理, 时间变异系数, 地震时间预测

Abstract: Assuming that while a strong earthquake is being prepared, the seismic activity will demonstratea process of uniform to relatively uniform to uneven increase,corresponding to the local stress field change, Based on this physical basis, we constitute samples space by using the parameters related to the occurring time of earthquakes to seek the variation coefficient about the earthquake events cluster character on the time axis. By the practical application in recent years, it turned out that the study in occurring time forecast of earthquakes is significant.

Key words: Seismic activity, Physical character, Time variation coefficient, The earthquake occurring time forecast

中图分类号:

P315.7

顾瑾萍, 姜龙. 中强地震时间预测研究[J]. 地震, 2014, 34(2): 138-144.

GU Jin-ping, JIANG Long. A Method for Time Forecast of Intermediate to Strong Earthquakes[J]. EARTHQUAKE, 2014, 34(2): 138-144.

参考文献

[1] Rundle J B, Klein W. New ideas about the physics of earthquakes[J]. Rev Geophys, 1995, suppl: 283-286.
[2] Main I. Statistical physics, seismogenesis, and seismic hazard[J]. Rev Geophys, 1996, 34: 433-462.
[3] Bak P, Tang C, Wiesenfeld K. Self-organized criticality: an explanation of 1/f noise[J]. Physical Review Letters, 1987, 59(4): 381-384.
[4] Bak P, Tang C, Wiesenfeld K. Self-organized Criticality [J]. Physical Review A, 1988, 11(1): 364-374.
[5] Bak P, Tang C. Earthquakes as a self-organized critical phenomenon[J]. Geophys Res, 1989, 94: 15635-15637.
[6] Ito K, Matsuzaki M. Earthquake as self-organized critical phenomena[J]. Geophys Res, 1990, 95: 6853-6860.
[7] Sornette D, Davy P, Sornette A. Structuration of the lithosphere in plate tectonics as self-organized critical phenomenon[J]. Geophys Res, 1990, 95: 17353-17361.
[8] Olami Z, Feder H J S, Christensen K. Self-organized criticality in a continious, non-conservative cellular automaton modelling earthquakes[J]. Phys Rev Lett, 1992, 68: 1244-1247.
[9] 吕金虎, 陆君安, 陈士华, 等. 混沌时间序列分析及其应用[M]. 武汉: 武汉大学出版社, 2002.
[10] 何越磊. 沙堆模型复杂性现象及自组织临界性系统研究[D]. 西南交通大学, 2005.
[11] 吴忠良. 自组织临界性与地震预测—对目前地震预测问题争论的评述(之一) [J]. 中国地震, 1998, 14(4): 1-8.
[12] 罗灼礼, 孟国杰. 关于地震丛集特征、成因及临界状态的讨论 [J]. 地震, 2002, 22(3): 1-13.
[13] 罗灼礼, 孟国杰, 王伟君, 等. 地震活动涨落、自组织结构和大震临界状态的统计特征[J]. 地震, 2004, 24(4): 1-15.
[14] 顾瑾萍. 非线性震级频次关系在时间项短临预测中的应用[J]. 北京: 地震, 2000, 20(S1): 50-57.
[15] 张国民, 付征祥, 桂夑泰, 等. 地震预报引论[M]. 科学出版社, 2001.
[16] 陈时军, 王志才, 陶九庆, 等. 非线性震级频次关系与两类地震活动系统[J]. 地震学报, 1998, 20(2): 174-184 .
[17] 朱传镇, 王琳瑛, 舒曦, 等. 前震活动特征及其识别的研究[A]. 国家地震局预测预防司编: 地震短临预报的理论与研究[C]. 北京: 地震出版社, 1997, 32-37.