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地震 ›› 2017, Vol. 37 ›› Issue (1): 134-147.

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从二个地下流体典型震例论台网优化与升级

车用太1,何案华2,冯恩国3,马玉川4   

  1. 1.中国地震局地质研究所, 北京 100029;
    2.中国地震局地壳应力研究所地壳动力学重点实验室, 北京 100085;
    3.山东省地震局聊城地震水化站, 山东 聊城 252000;
    4.中国地震台网中心, 北京100045
  • 收稿日期:2016-03-02 发布日期:2019-08-14
  • 通讯作者: 何案华(1979-), 副研究员, E-mail: dqs_hah@163.com
  • 作者简介:车用太(1942-), 男, 朝鲜族, 黑龙江方正人, 研究员,主要从事地下流体监测预报研究
  • 基金资助:
    中国地震局地壳应力研究所中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务专项(ZDJ2014-04)资助

On Optimizing and Upgrading of Fluid Observation Networkbased on Two Typical Earthquake Cases

CHE Yong-tai1,HE An-hua2,FENG En-guo3,MA Yu-chuan4   

  1. 1.Institute of Geology, CEA, Beijing 100029, China;
    2.Key Laboratory of Crustal Dynamics, Institute of Crustal Dynamics, CEA, Beijing 100085, China;
    3.Earthquake Administration of Shandong Province, Jinan 252000, China;
    4.China Earthquake Networks Center, Beijing 100045,China
  • Received:2016-03-02 Published:2019-08-14

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摘要： 对1998年张北MS6.2与2014年鲁甸MS6.5二个地下流体的典型震例, 进行前兆异常的重新筛选与异常特征的系统剖析, 分析了异常与地震三要素关系, 指出了异常特征与地震三要素关系的不确定性及以此实现地震预测的困难性。 从场的动态监测与源的过程追踪的地震预测的科学思路出发, 提出了中国地震地下流体台网的优化与升级的方向与方案, 其主要内容有: ① 通过对现有观测井(泉)进行筛选并增建一批新观测井(泉), 重建以强化场的动态监测为目标的全国地下流体基本台网, 该网以地下水物理化学(水位、 水温、 氡、 汞)观测为主, 井(泉)间距在西部地区为约200 km, 东部地区为约100 km, 首都圈地区为约50 km; ② 在天山带、 南北带、 郯庐地震带等地震潜在危险区, 新建5~6个地下流体局部观测网, 开展以捕捉M6.0以上地震的源兆与追踪其变化过程为目标的断层气体(含溶解气与土壤气)成网观测, 井(泉, 点)间距为约50 km左右, 进行突破地震短临预测的科学技术探索; ③ 在建设上述二个层次观测网时, 抓三项关键技术: 进一步完善与提升现有的数字化观测技术, 优化与规范观测井的内在质量, 发展气体、 离子、 流量等测项。

关键词: 地下流体, 典型震例, 台网优化与升级, 全国基本网, 局部加密网

Abstract: We re-investigated and analyzed the abnormal characteristics before Zhangbei earthquake (Jan. 1998, MS6.2) and Ludian earthquake (Aug. 2014, MS6.5), and studied the relationships between anomalies and three elements of earthquake prediction. It is suggested that the no-determinacy between anomalies and three elements of earthquake occurrence and the earthquake prediction will be very hard. According to the field observation and the tracking of epicenter development, we proposed directions and methods for improving and upgrading the ground fluid observation network. (1) Upgrade the basic observation network for field dynamic observations based on the existing stations after re-choose, which mainly includes physical and chemical items (water level, water temperature, radon, mercury, etc.), and the distance of each point is about 200 km in western region and 100 km in eastern region, especially 50 km around the capital. (2) In order to catch source anomaly and tracking the change process, design 5~6 regional observation networks with interval of about 50 km in the potential danger zones (Tianshan Mountain belt, China north-south earthquake belt, Tancheng-Lujiang seismic zone, etc.). Try to explore the short-term earthquake prediction methods based on these networks. (3) Attention should be paid to three key technologies when we construct the two levels network: improving the digital observation technology, optimizing the observational borehole in inherent quality, and developing non-mainstream observation items (gas, ion, flow, etc.).

Key words: Underground fluid, Optimizing and upgrading in observation network, National basic observation network, Regional observation network

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