定量分析紫坪铺水库蓄水与汶川地震发生的关系

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 为分析紫坪铺水库蓄水与2008年汶川M_S8.0地震的关系, 通过求解二维孔弹耦合层状介质下解析解形式的扩散孔隙压, 获取了汶川地震发生前地震震源处的扩散孔隙压值。在此基础上, 开展了汶川地震发生前, 地震震源处以及北川—映秀断裂带断层面上应力变化量的计算。结果表明, 汶川地震发生前, 地震震源处的库仑应力变化量值较小, 为-0.001 MPa, 表明蓄水对汶川地震的发生具有一定程度的抑制作用。

关键词: 紫坪铺水库, 2008年汶川M_S8.0地震, 孔弹耦合介质, 扩散孔隙压

Abstract: In order to analyze the relationship between the impoundment of the Zipingpu Reservoir and occurrence of the 2008 Wenchuan M_S8.0 earthquake, the diffused pore pressure on the hypocentral zone of the Wenchuan earthquake is gotten by the quantitative calculation in the pore-elastic layer medium. Based on it, stress variances before the Wenchuan earthquake on the hypocentral zone are also simulated. The results show that Coulomb stress on the hypocentral zone is about -0.001 MPa, indicating a very low relation between the reservoir impoundment and the earthquake occurrence.

Key words: The 2008 Wenchuan Earthquake, Zipingpu Reservoir, Pore-elastic Medium

中图分类号:

P315.7

罗钧, 赵翠萍, 汪荣江. 定量分析紫坪铺水库蓄水与汶川地震发生的关系[J]. 地震, 2018, 38(2): 51-61.

LUO Jun, ZHAO Cui-ping, WANG Rong-jiang. Quantitative Analysis of the Relationship between the Zipingpu Reservoir Impoundment and the 2008 Wenchuan M_S8.0 Earthquake[J]. EARTHQUAKE, 2018, 38(2): 51-61.

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