“地震可预测性国际合作研究”—1.0阶段工作理念及成果

doi:10.12196/j.issn.1000-3274.2021.04.016

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 20世纪90年代由世界多个国家的地震学家围绕“地震可否预测”问题进行国际讨论后, 人们开始思考适用于地震预测研究的规则应该有哪些, 尤其是地震学家针对地震预测研究中所采取的途径和工作思路开始发生了变化。 2007年开始的“区域地震似然模型”(Regional Earthquake Likelihood Models, RELM)工作组和由此进一步而来的“地震可预测性国际合作研究”(Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability, CSEP)计划开始之后, 一大批地震预测模型和与评估其预测效能有关的统计检验方法加入进来, 在设立相同的预测规则和使用统一的数据来源下, 通过全球设立不同测试中心的方式, 共同参与到对地震可预测性问题的系统研究中来。当前, CSEP计划已由开始的1.0阶段发展至2.0阶段, 为使读者了解与这几项国际合作研究相关的工作主旨和发展历程, 本文总结了与CSEP工作1.0阶段相关的工作理念和工作成果以及存在的问题, 以期为下一步工作的开展提供参考。

关键词: RELM工作组, “地震可预测性国际合作研究”(CSEP1.0)计划, 工作理念和发展成果

Abstract: The working routine and research procedure for the earthquake prediction and forecasting began to be discussed after the international debates for the predictability of earthquake started in 1990s. This change gave a new sight for the earthquake researchers for the question that how to conduct an assessment and evaluation for the model performance once a model outputted a forecast result for potential of large earthquakes. To promote the earthquake forecast experiments using likelihood models, the group of Regional Earthquake Likelihood Models (RELM) started by the South California Earthquake Center (SCEC) and it produced hundreds of forecast models in a few years. These models were defined and developed by the seismologists in different research departments. As a following work of the RELM, the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) suggested by SCEC and proposed that different countries and regions should join the test process for different forecast models using rigorous evaluation methods and uniform earthquake data source. In China, the North-South Seismic Belt was suggested as the first testing center (CN-CSEP) in this phase of CSEP work (CSEP1.0). Now the CSEP1.0 has been developed into CSEP2.0 from 2018, and the test region of China has also changed to be the China Seismic Experimental Site (CSES), which has been launched on May 12th, 2018 at the International Conference for the Decades Memory of the Wenchuan Earthquake. In order to make readers understand the working routine and principle for the research related to this international cooperation among different countries and regions, this text gives an outline and a systematically description for the principle and achievements of CSEP1.0 work in recent ten years, as well as the existing problems.

Key words: Collaboratory for the study of earthquake predictability (CSEP1.0), Regional earthquake likelihood models (RELM), Principle and achievements

中图分类号:

P315.7

张盛峰, 张永仙. “地震可预测性国际合作研究”—1.0阶段工作理念及成果[J]. 地震, 2021, 41(4): 203-217.

ZHANG Sheng-feng, ZHANG Yong-xian. Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability —Working Philosophy and Achievements of CSEP1.0[J]. EARTHQUAKE, 2021, 41(4): 203-217.

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