宁夏地区弱震条带梳理及预测指标总结

doi:10.12196/j.issn.1000-3274.2023.03.013

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 本文通过回溯整理1970年以来宁夏地区出现的地震条带异常, 分析了条带异常时空特征和内外地震频次比异常阈值, 获得了主震与条带的参数拟合方程, 总结了宁夏地震条带预测指标, 为宁夏震情短临跟踪和会商研判技术方案提供了一定支撑和依据。结果表明: ① 1970年以来宁夏及邻区共发生12次M_L≥2.5显著地震条带, 其中有8次地震条带结束后一年内在条带内部或端部发生5级以上地震, 优势映震期为半年, 能够通过预报效能R值评分检验, 具有一定中期预报意义; ② 主震发震时间、震级大小与条带的长度、持续时间、总能量之间存在较好的线性正相关, 可由回归方程给出参考平均值, 条带端部是未来中强地震发生的有利场所; ③ 宁夏地区条带内外地震频次比的平均值普遍较低, 映震条带形成期间存在大于0.75但不超过2倍均方差的显著高值, 虚报条带高值异常不显著。

关键词: 地震条带, 频次比, 预测指标

Abstract: By retrospectively collating seismic belt anomalies in Ningxia since 1970, we analyzed the temporal and spatial characteristics of seismic belt anomalies, as well as, the anomaly threshold of internal and external seismic frequency ratio, obtained the parametric fitting equations of major earthquake and seismic belt, summarized and the prediction indexes of seismic belt in Ningxia, which provides some support and basis for the short-term earthquake tracking, discussion and evaluation technical schemes in Ningxia. The results showed that ① There were 12 significant seismic belts with M_L≥2.5 in Ningxia and its adjacent areas since 1970, among which, 8 earthquakes with M≥5 occurred at the end of the strip within one year after the end of the belts, and the dominant seismic reflection period was half a year, which could pass the R-value scoring test of prediction efficiency, and had certain medium-term prediction significance. ② There was a good linear positive correlation between the onset time, magnitude of the main earthquake, and the length, duration, total energy of the belt. The reference mean value could be given by the regression equation. The end of the belt was a favorable place for the occurrence of moderate strong earthquakes in the future. ③ In Ningxia, the average frequency ratio of the inner and outer belt was generally low. During the formation of the seismic reflection belts, there was a significant high value more than 0.75 but less than 2 times the mean square error, and the abnormal high value of the falsely reported belts was not significant.

Key words: Seismic belts, Frequency ratio of seismic belts, Prediction indexes

中图分类号:

P315.7

罗恒之, 罗国富, 马禾青, 许英才, 李文君. 宁夏地区弱震条带梳理及预测指标总结[J]. 地震, 2023, 43(3): 178-189.

LUO Heng-zhi, LUO Guo-fu, MA He-qing, XU Ying-cai, LI Wen-jun. Carding Seismic Belts and Summarizing Prediction Indexes in Ningxia[J]. EARTHQUAKE, 2023, 43(3): 178-189.

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