2024年1月23日新疆乌什MS7.1地震前电磁多参量异常

doi:10.12196/j.issn.1000-3274.2025.01.005

地震 ›› 2025, Vol. 45 ›› Issue (1): 63-80.doi: 10.12196/j.issn.1000-3274.2025.01.005

2024年1月23日新疆乌什M_S7.1地震前电磁多参量异常

艾萨·伊斯马伊力¹, 张桉赫¹, 宋春燕¹, 刘海洋¹, 翟世龙¹, 冯丽丽², 牛中华¹, 熊攀³, 焦立果⁴, 贺曼秋⁵

1.新疆维吾尔自治区地震局, 新疆乌鲁木齐 830011;
2.青海省地震局, 青海西宁 810001;
3.中国地震局地震预测研究所, 北京 100036;
4.中国地震局地球物理研究所, 北京 100081;
5.重庆市地震局, 重庆 401147

收稿日期:2024-03-25 接受日期:2024-09-05 发布日期:2025-04-15
通讯作者: 熊攀, 研究员。 E-mail: xiongpan@ief.ac.cn
作者简介:艾萨·伊斯马伊力(1985-), 男, 新疆新和人, 高级工程师, 主要从事地震电磁学和地震预测研究。E-mail: aisa@cug.edu.cn
基金资助:
中国地震局地震科技星火项目(XH24008D, XH23029A, XH22032D); 新疆维吾尔自治区自然科学基金项目(2022D03031, 2023D01A104); 中国地震局三结合提升性项目(3JH-202402071); 中国地震局震情跟踪青年项目(2023010415); 新疆地震科学基金项目(202401)

Electromagnetic Multi-parameter Anomalies before the Uqturpan County M_S7.1 Earthquake in Xinjiang on January 23, 2024

AISA·Yisimayili¹, ZHANG An-he¹, SONG Chun-yan¹, LIU Hai-yang¹, ZHAI Shi-long¹, FENG Li-li², NIU Zhong-hua¹, XIONG Pan³, JIAO Li-guo⁴, HE Man-qiu⁵

1. Earthquake Administration of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, Urumqi 830011, China;
2. Qinghai Earthquake Agency, Xining 810001, China;
3. Institute of Earthquake Forecasting, China Earthquake Administration, Beijing 100036, China;
4. Institute of Geophysics, China Earthquake Administration, Beijing 100081, China;
5. Chongqing Earthquake Agency, Chongqing 401147, China

Received:2024-03-25 Accepted:2024-09-05 Published:2025-04-15

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 2024年1月23日新疆乌什县(78.63°E、 41.26°N)发生了M_S7.1地震, 震源深度为20 km。本文使用形态分析法、优势方位角、归一化变化速率方法, 以及地磁逐日比和地磁垂直强度极化法, 处理和分析了2024年1月23日新疆乌什M_S7.1地震震中距500 km范围内的地电阻率、地电场、地磁场等电磁多参量的异常。在排除各台站仪器运行、台站观测环境、空间电磁活动等影响因素后, 认为距震中约70 km范围内的柯坪地电阻率台在震前出现了年变畸变的变化过程。柯坪地电阻率台2023年EW向年变幅明显低于背景值, 且是自2014年观测以来最突出的变化。温泉地电场长极距EW/NW测道和短极距EW/NW测道在震前8个月出现岩石裂隙优势方位角先下降后回升的变化, 且矢量方位角在震前向乌什地震方向偏移; 地磁场在震前10个月、 57 d、 35 d、 7 d分别在地磁垂直强度极化法、地磁垂直分量逐日比和地磁低点位移上显示异常变化, 以区域短期(临震)异常为主。此外, 2022—2023年度南天山流动地磁结果也显示柯坪至阿合奇区域显示异常变化。最后, 通过对2024年1月23日新疆乌什M_S7.1地震孕震过程中电磁多参量前兆异常的时空演化特征进行综合分析和相互印证, 判断区域应力状态的变化。本文涉及的电磁学科预报方法清单的建设及其作用, 可以为后续分析做铺垫。

关键词: 2024年新疆乌什M_S7.1地震, 电磁异常, 地电阻率, 地电场, 地磁场

Abstract: On January 23, 2024, an M_S7.1 earthquake with a focal depth of 20 km occurred in Uqturpan County (78.63°E, 41.26°N), Xinjiang, China. In this paper, the multi electromagnetic anomalies, such as earth resistivity, geoelectric field, and geomagnetic field, within 500 km from the epicenter of the 2024 Uqturpan County M_S7.1 earthquake, are analyzed using morphological analysis, dominant azimuth, normalized change rate method, daily ratio of geomagnetic field, and vertical intensity polarization method. After excluding factors such as instrument operation, station observation environment, and space electromagnetic activity, it is considered that the annual change in earth resistivity occurred before the earthquake at Kalpin station within a range of about 70 km from the epicenter. The annual amplitude of the EW direction at the Kalpin earth resistivity station in 2023 was significantly less than the background, being the most prominent variation since 2014. The dominant azimuth angles of rock fissures in the long and short EW/NW geoelectric fields in Wenquan showed a decrease followed by an increase 8 months before the earthquake, and they shifted towards the direction of the Uqturpan County earthquake just before the event. The geomagnetic field exhibited abnormal changes in the vertical intensity polarization, the daily ratio of the vertical component, and the displacement of the geomagnetic low point 10 months, 57 days, 35 days, and 7 days before the earthquake, respectively. Additionally, the 2022—2023 mobile geomagnetic survey also showed anomalous variations in the region from Kalpin County to Akqi County. Finally, the temporal and spatial evolution characteristics of the multi-parameter electromagnetic anomalies during the 2024 Uqturpan M_S7.1 earthquake on January 23 are analyzed, and the causes of the precursors are discussed. These results can accumulate experiences and cases for earthquake prediction using the electromagnetic multi-parameter method in the future, and help to further optimize prediction indexes.

Key words: The 2024 Uqturpan M_S7.1 earthquake in Xinjiang, Electromagnetic anomaly, Earth resistivity, Earth electric field, Geomagnetic field

中图分类号:

P315.7

艾萨·伊斯马伊力, 张桉赫, 宋春燕, 刘海洋, 翟世龙, 冯丽丽, 牛中华, 熊攀, 焦立果, 贺曼秋. 2024年1月23日新疆乌什M_S7.1地震前电磁多参量异常[J]. 地震, 2025, 45(1): 63-80.

AISA·Yisimayili, ZHANG An-he, SONG Chun-yan, LIU Hai-yang, ZHAI Shi-long, FENG Li-li, NIU Zhong-hua, XIONG Pan, JIAO Li-guo, HE Man-qiu. Electromagnetic Multi-parameter Anomalies before the Uqturpan County M_S7.1 Earthquake in Xinjiang on January 23, 2024[J]. EARTHQUAKE, 2025, 45(1): 63-80.

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2024年1月23日新疆乌什M_S7.1地震前电磁多参量异常

Electromagnetic Multi-parameter Anomalies before the Uqturpan County M_S7.1 Earthquake in Xinjiang on January 23, 2024

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2024年1月23日新疆乌什MS7.1地震前电磁多参量异常

Electromagnetic Multi-parameter Anomalies before the Uqturpan County MS7.1 Earthquake in Xinjiang on January 23, 2024

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2024年1月23日新疆乌什M_S7.1地震前电磁多参量异常

Electromagnetic Multi-parameter Anomalies before the Uqturpan County M_S7.1 Earthquake in Xinjiang on January 23, 2024