新疆天山地区MS≥7.0地震时空有序性分析

doi:10.12196/j.issn.1000-3274.2025.03.012

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 强震在特定的时空范围内按一定规律发生的现象称为地震时空有序性。利用可公度法和立体有序结构对1700年以来天山地区M_S≥7.0地震进行了分析。通过列出可公度方程并绘制立体有序结构, 提高了强震发生趋势分析的可靠性, 并对未来50年内该地区强震的发生趋势进行了预测。研究结果显示: ① 新疆天山地区M_S≥7.0地震具有良好的时空有序性, 发震时间呈现出明显的可公度性; ② 未来50年内, 该地区M_S≥7.0地震可能发生的时间为2026年、 2028年和2056年; ③ 未来该地区的强震震中可能呈现向东迁移的趋势。

关键词: 地震, 可公度性, 时空有序性, 天山地区

Abstract: The phenomenon of strong earthquakes occurring in a specific spatiotemporal range following a certain pattern is referred to as seismic spatiotemporal orderliness. In this study, the commensurability method and three-dimensional ordered structure were applied to analyze M_S≥7.0 earthquakes in the Tianshan region since 1700. The commensurability equations were derived, and the three-dimensional ordered structure was constructed to enhance the reliability of trend analysis for strong earthquake occurrences. Furthermore, the occurrence trends of strong earthquakes in this region over the next 50 years were predicted. The results indicate that: ① M_S≥7.0 earthquakes in the Tianshan region of Xinjiang exhibit significant spatiotemporal orderliness, with a clear commensurability in occurrence times; ② The potential occurrence years for M_S≥7.0 earthquakes in this region within the next 50 years are 2026, 2028, and 2056; ③ Future strong earthquakes in the region are likely to migrate eastward.

Key words: Earthquake, Commensurability, Spatiotemporal orderliness, Tianshan region

中图分类号:

P315.7

韩鑫卓, 王云. 新疆天山地区M_S≥7.0地震时空有序性分析[J]. 地震, 2025, 45(3): 180-192.

HAN Xin-zhuo, WANG Yun. Spatiotemporal Order Analysis of M_S≥7.0 Earthquakes in Tianshan Region, Xinjiang, China[J]. EARTHQUAKE, 2025, 45(3): 180-192.

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