中国陆区未来10年地震危险性预测与地震风险评估研究

doi:10.12196/j.issn.1000-3274.2025.03.013

地震 ›› 2025, Vol. 45 ›› Issue (3): 193-218.doi: 10.12196/j.issn.1000-3274.2025.03.013

• 地震监测预报60周年专栏 • 上一篇

中国陆区未来10年地震危险性预测与地震风险评估研究

邵志刚¹, 王武星¹, 刘琦¹, 窦爱霞¹, 王晓青¹, 武艳强², 季灵运³, 张令心⁴, 徐伟进⁵, 许冲⁶, 王芃¹, 魏文薪¹, 潘正洋¹, 刘晓霞¹, 尹晓菲¹, 冯蔚¹, 孙珂¹

1.中国地震局地震预测研究所, 地震预测与风险评估应急管理部重点实验室, 北京 100036;
2.中国地震局第一监测中心, 天津 300180;
3.中国地震局第二监测中心, 陕西西安 710054;
4.中国地震局工程力学研究所, 黑龙江哈尔滨 150080;
5.中国地震局地球物理研究所, 北京 100081;
6.应急管理部国家自然灾害防治研究院, 北京 100085

收稿日期:2025-04-07 修回日期:2025-06-04 出版日期:2025-07-31 发布日期:2025-10-23
作者简介:邵志刚(1977-), 男, 山东临沂人, 研究员, 主要从事地球动力学与地震活动性研究。 E-mail: shaozg0911@126.com
基金资助:
国家重点研发计划项目(2023YFC3007300)

Study on the Prediction of Seismic Hazard and Seismic Risk Assessment for the Next 10 Years in the Chinese Mainland

SHAO Zhi-gang¹, WANG Wu-xing¹, LIU Qi¹, DOU Ai-xia¹, WANG Xiao-qing¹, WU Yan-qiang², JI Ling-yun³, ZHANG Ling-xin⁴, XU Wei-jin⁵, XU Chong⁶, WANG Peng¹, WEI Wen-xin¹, PAN Zheng-yang¹, LIU Xiao-xia¹, YIN Xiao-fei¹, FENG Wei¹, SUN Ke¹

1. Key Laboratory of Earthquake Forecasting and Risk Assessment, Ministry of Emergency Management, Institute of Earthquake Forecasting of China Earthquake Administration, Beijing 100036, China;
2. The First Monitoring and Application Center, China Earthquake Administration, Tianjin 300180, China;
3. The Second Monitoring and Application Center, China Earthquake Administration, Xi'an 710054, China;
4. Institute of Engineering Mechanics, China Earthquake Administration, Harbin 150080, China;
5. Institute of Geophysics, China Earthquake Administration, Beijing 100081, China;
6. National Institute of Natural Hazards, Ministry of Emergency Management of China, Beijing 100085, China

Received:2025-04-07 Revised:2025-06-04 Online:2025-07-31 Published:2025-10-23

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 本文详细阐述了2021—2030年地震重点监视防御区(重防区)确定工作的具体任务与研究内容。该工作以提升区域防震减灾能力为根本目标, 核心内容包括开展地震长期预测与地震灾害预测研究, 系统性地分析区域震情风险与潜在灾情; 在此基础上, 充分结合区域经济社会发展现状与需求, 科学制定重防区范围划定的技术方案。其目的在于为各级政府提供防灾政策, 以引导社会公众有效参与防震减灾, 为地震系统部署的针对性工作提供明确的战略目标区; 系统地制定并推动实施一系列综合对策, 着力提升该区域整体的防震减灾能力与实际效能。本次重防区的确定, 将为后续有效开展重防区10年更新、 5年滚动和逐年跟踪等各项工作提供重要依据。

关键词: 地震重点监视防御区, 地震长期预测, 地震灾害预测, 防震减灾

Abstract: This paper elaborates on the specific tasks and research content involved in determining the Key Earthquake Monitoring and Preparedness Zones (ZFP) for the 2021—2030 period. With the fundamental goal of enhancing regional earthquake prevention and disaster mitigation capacity, the core work encompasses conducting research on long-term earthquake forecasting and earthquake disaster prediction, along with systematically analyzing regional seismic risks and potential disaster scenarios. Building on this foundation, the work fully integrates the current status and developmental needs of regional socio-economy to scientifically formulate the technical plan for delineating the boundaries of the ZFP. The objectives are to: Provide disaster prevention policies for governments at all levels to guide effective public participation in earthquake prevention and mitigation efforts; Establish well-defined strategic target areas for the deployment of focused initiatives within the earthquake monitoring system; Systematically develop and promote the implementation of a series of comprehensive countermeasures, aiming to elevate the overall earthquake prevention and disaster mitigation capacity and practical effectiveness of the region. The determination of these Key Zones will serve as a crucial reference for effectively conducting subsequent ZFP-related activities, including decadal updates, five-year rolling adjustments, and annual tracking.

Key words: The key earthquake monitoring and preparedness zones, Long-term earthquake forecasting, Earthquake risk assessment, Earthquake prevention and mitigation

中图分类号:

P315.7

邵志刚, 王武星, 刘琦, 窦爱霞, 王晓青, 武艳强, 季灵运, 张令心, 徐伟进, 许冲, 王芃, 魏文薪, 潘正洋, 刘晓霞, 尹晓菲, 冯蔚, 孙珂. 中国陆区未来10年地震危险性预测与地震风险评估研究[J]. 地震, 2025, 45(3): 193-218.

SHAO Zhi-gang, WANG Wu-xing, LIU Qi, DOU Ai-xia, WANG Xiao-qing, WU Yan-qiang, JI Ling-yun, ZHANG Ling-xin, XU Wei-jin, XU Chong, WANG Peng, WEI Wen-xin, PAN Zheng-yang, LIU Xiao-xia, YIN Xiao-fei, FENG Wei, SUN Ke. Study on the Prediction of Seismic Hazard and Seismic Risk Assessment for the Next 10 Years in the Chinese Mainland[J]. EARTHQUAKE, 2025, 45(3): 193-218.

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中国陆区未来10年地震危险性预测与地震风险评估研究

Study on the Prediction of Seismic Hazard and Seismic Risk Assessment for the Next 10 Years in the Chinese Mainland

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