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地震 ›› 2007, Vol. 27 ›› Issue (4): 36-42.

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首都圈地区小震活动月频次分布特征

陈学忠, 郭祥云, 李艳娥   

  1. 中国地震局地球物理研究所, 北京 100081
  • 收稿日期:2007-06-12 修回日期:2007-07-10 出版日期:2007-10-31 发布日期:2021-10-29
  • 作者简介:陈学忠(1963-), 男, 重庆永川人, 研究员, 主要从事数字地震学、 地震预报方法等研究。

The distribution characteristics of monthly number for small earthquakes in the capital area of China

CHEN Xue-zhong, GUO Xiang-yun, LI Yan-e   

  1. Institute of Geophysics, CEA, Beijing 100081, China
  • Received:2007-06-12 Revised:2007-07-10 Online:2007-10-31 Published:2021-10-29

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摘要： 利用Kolmogorov-Smirnov分布检验法,对2000-2006年首都圈地区小震月频次分布进行了检验。 结果表明, 首都圈地区小震活动月频次符合正态分布, 而不符合泊松分布。 月频次累计次数与月频次之间的关系与G-R关系类似。 对月频次分布随时间的变化做了进一步分析, 发现在首都圈及其邻近地区发生的4次ML≥5.0以上地震前, 月频次分布均表现出明显的变化。 这可能为利用地震活动性开展地震预测提供一个新的方法。

关键词: 小震活动, 月频次, 地震预测, 首都圈

Abstract: The Kolmogorov-Smirnov test is used in this paper to test the distribution of monthly number for small earthquakes occurred in the period from 2000 to 2006 in the capital area of China. The results show that the distribution of the monthly number agrees with normal distribution, rather than possion distribution. The relationship between the accumulative frequency of the monthly number and the monthly number resembles the Gutenberg-Richter law. Further analyzing the changes of the monthly number with time, it is found that before the four earthquakes with ML≥5.0 occurred around the capital area, the distribution of the monthly number changes obviously. It may provide a new method of earthquake prediction by using earthquake activity.

Key words: Small earthquakes, Monthly number, Earthquake prediction, The capital area of China

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