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地震 ›› 2006, Vol. 26 ›› Issue (2): 61-67.

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1970年以来中国大陆25次6.8级以上地震前态矢量异常特征研究

吴永加1, 张永仙2, 尹祥础1   

  1. 1.中国地震局地震预测研究所, 北京 100036;
    2.中国地震台网中心, 北京 100036
  • 收稿日期:2005-10-26 修回日期:2006-01-10 出版日期:2006-04-30 发布日期:2021-11-01
  • 作者简介:吴永加(1979-), 男, 安徽枞阳人, 2003年在读硕士研究生, 主要从事地震预测等研究。
  • 基金资助:
    “十五”国家重点科技攻关项目(2004BA601B01-01-01); 地震科学联合基金项目(305016)

Characteristics of state vector anomaly before 25 earth- quakes (M≥6.8) in China's mainland since 1970

WU Yong-jia1, ZHANG Yong-xian2, YIN Xiang-chu1   

  1. 1. Institute of Earthquake Science, CEA, Beijing 100036;
    2. China Earthquake Network Center, CEA, Beijing 100036, China
  • Received:2005-10-26 Revised:2006-01-10 Online:2006-04-30 Published:2021-11-01

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摘要： 利用态矢量方法对中国大陆1970年以来25次6.8级以上地震进行了较为全面的分析研究, 结果表明, 19次地震前3年内态矢量出现明显异常, 其中10次地震发生前60天内态矢量有明显的变化, 只有6次地震前态矢量变化不明显。 由此认为态矢量方法对强震具有一定的中期和短临预测能力。 研究结果还表明, 相对于态矢量增量的模、 态矢量方向的改变等参量, 态矢量的模在震前的变化更为敏感, 此外, 对于相同震级的地震, 最佳扫描区域尺度大小不一, 并对这些现象进行了一定的解释。

关键词: 中国大陆, 态矢量, 异常特征, 地震预测

Abstract: 25 great earthquakes (M≥6.8) in China's mainland since 1970 are studied by using the prediction approach of state vector in this paper. The results show that apparent anomalies occur within 3 years before 19 earthquakes among 25, of which apparent anomalies occur within 60 days before 9 among 19. This implies that the state vector could be used as a kind of methods for mid-term and short-term earthquake prediction. The results also show that the module of state vector is more sensitive than other parameters stated in this paper. The results show at the same time that there are different best scan zones relative to the same magnitude earthquakes occurred in different locations. The causes of these phenomena are discussed in this paper.

Key words: China's mainland, State vector, Characteristics of anomaly, Earthquake prediction

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