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地震

地震 ›› 2004, Vol. 24 ›› Issue (1): 60-64.

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引潮力与显著地震关系及其在短临预报中的应用

陈荣华, 彭克银, 薛艳, 丁香   

  1. 中国地震局分析预报中心, 北京 100036
  • 出版日期:2004-01-31 发布日期:2021-11-29
  • 作者简介:陈荣华(1945-), 男, 上海市人, 研究员, 1980年获硕士学位, 主要从事地震预报、 地震活动性等研究。
  • 基金资助:
    “十五”国家科技攻关项目(01-05-01)

Relation between tidal force and significant shocks and its application in the short-term and impending earthquake prediction

CHEN Rong-hua, PENG Ke-yin, XUE Yan, DING Xiang   

  1. Center for Analysis and Prediction, CSB, Beijing 100036, China
  • Online:2004-01-31 Published:2021-11-29

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摘要： 对引潮力与显著地震的关系及其在地震短临预报中的应用作了较系统的总结, 进一步完善了笔者提出的基于显著地震特点的地震短临预报方法, 简称CH方法。 1997年至2003年5月应用CH方法所作的全部21次地震短临预报中, 与地震实况比较, 较好和做了一定程度预报的共有12次, 占57%, 这表明用于地震短临预报的CH方法具有较好的效能。

关键词: 引潮力, 显著地震, 地震预报, 临界状态

Abstract: The systematic summarization is made for the relation between tidal force and significant shock and its application in the short-term and impending earthquake prediction, and our proposed prediction method based on characteristics of significant shocks is improved in this study. The method is named CH method for short. In all 21 short-term and impending predictions from Jan. of 1997 to May of 2003 using CH method, 12 earthquake cased are of the better and a certain extent prediction, accounting for 57%. It indicates that our proposed short-term and impending earthquake prediction method i.e. CH method shows better effect in earthquake prediction.

Key words: Tidal force, Significant shock, Earthquake prediction, Critical state

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