加卸载响应比理论用于矿震预测的初步研究

地震 ›› 2004, Vol. 24 ›› Issue (2): 25-30.

加卸载响应比理论用于矿震预测的初步研究

尹祥础^1,2, 尹迅飞³, 余怀忠², 张晖辉², 颜玉定⁴

1.中国地震局分析预报中心, 北京 100036;
2.中国科学院力学研究所非线性力学国家重点实验室, 北京 100080;
3.水利部水利水电规划设计总院, 北京 100011;
4.广东省地震局, 广东广州 510070

出版日期:2004-04-30 发布日期:2021-11-29
作者简介:尹祥础(1935-), 男, 江西永新人, 研究员, 1991年博士生导师, 主要从事地震力学及地震预报等研究。
基金资助:
国家知然科学基金项目(10232050, 40004002); 国家973项目(2002CB412706); 中国科学院计算机网络信息中心超级计算中心(INF105-SCE-2-02)

Preliminary study on mining induced earthquake prediction in terms of Loading-Unloading Response Ratio (LURR)

YIN Xiang-chu^1,2, YIN Xun-fei³, YU Huai-zhong², ZHANG Hui-hui², YAN Yu-ding⁴

1. Center for Analysis and Prediction, CSB, Beijing 100036;
2. National Key Laboratory of Nonlinear Mechanics, Institute of Mechanics, CAS, Beijing 100080;
3. General Academy of Designing and Planning for Water Conservancy and Hydropower, Ministry of Water Conservancy, Beijing 100011, China;
4. Guang dong Seismological Bureau, Guangzhou, Guangdong 510070

Online:2004-04-30 Published:2021-11-29

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 加卸载响应比(LURR)理论是一种前景很好的中期地震预测方法, 通常在强烈地震发生前的数月至1~2年LURR出现高值, 因而LURR可以作为强烈天然地震的前兆, 用此方法曾经成功地预测过Northridge地震(1994年1月17日, M6.7, 美国加州), Kanto地震(1996年9月11日, M6.6, 日本)及不少发生在中国的天然地震。用房山煤矿1992年8月至1993年7月的微震资料, 计算了全年内7组M>2.1矿震前的加卸载响应比Y值, 其中5组矿震前Y值均明显大于1(Y≥2.9)。以上结果表明, 加卸载响应比理论有可能用于矿震的预测。

关键词: 加卸载响应比, 中期预测, 矿震, 房山煤矿

Abstract: The LURR (Loading-Unloading Response Ratio) is an intermediate-term earthquake prediction approach that has shown considerable promise. High LUGG value usually could be observed prior to strong earthquakes several moths to a year or two so that it could be served as an indicator of strong natural earthquakes. In terms of LURR several earthquakes such as Northridge earthquake (1994-1-17, M6.7, California, USA), Kanto earthquake (1996-9-11, M6.6, Japan) and some earthquakes occurred in China have been successfully predicted. The variation of LURR has been calculated using the seismic data of Fangshan Coal Mine during the period from August 1992 to July 1993. There were 7 groups of mining induced earthquakes with magnitude equal to or larger than 2.1, the values of LURR were significantly larger than 1 (LURR≥2.9) prior to 5 groups among the 7 groups. These results suggest that LURR could be served as a precursor to predict the mining induced earthquake.

Key words: Mining induced earthquakes, Mid-term prediction, Loading-Unloading Response Radio (LURR)

中图分类号:

P315

尹祥础, 尹迅飞, 余怀忠, 张晖辉, 颜玉定. 加卸载响应比理论用于矿震预测的初步研究[J]. 地震, 2004, 24(2): 25-30.

YIN Xiang-chu, YIN Xun-fei, YU Huai-zhong, ZHANG Hui-hui, YAN Yu-ding. Preliminary study on mining induced earthquake prediction in terms of Loading-Unloading Response Ratio (LURR)[J]. EARTHQUAKE, 2004, 24(2): 25-30.

参考文献

[1] 尹祥础, 尹灿. 非线性系统的失稳前兆与地震预报[J]. 中国科学, 1991, (5): 512-518.
[2] 李宣瑚. “八五”地震预报理论及方法攻关新进展之一加卸载响应比理论预测洛杉矶地震获得成功[J]. 国际地震动态, 1994, 4(184): 24-25.
[3] 尹祥础, 陈学忠, 宋治平, 等. 加卸载响应比理论(LURR)一种新的地震预报方法[J]. 地球物理学报, 1994, 37(6): 767-775.
[4] Иин Ксянчу (Xiang-chu YIN). Новый Подход к Прогногу Землетрясений[J]. ПРИРОДА, 1993, (1): 20-27.
[5] Xiang-chu YIN, Xue-Zhong Chen, Zhi-Ping Song, et al. The Load-Unload Response Ratio Theory and its Application to Earthquake Prediction Prediction[J]. Journal of Earthquake Prediction Research, 1994, (3): 325-333.
[6] Xiang-chu YIN, Can Yin, Xue-Zhong Chen. The Precursor of Instability for Nonlinear System and Its Application to Earthquake Prediction-the load-Unload Response Ratio Theory, “Non-linear dynamics and predictability of geophysical phenomena”[J]. (eds, W. I. Naman, Gabrelov, A. M., and Turcotte, D. L.), AGU Geophysical Monograph, 1994, (83): 55-60.
[7] Xiang-chu YIN, Xue-zhong CHEN, Zhi-ping SONG, et al. New Approach to Earthquake Prediction-The Load/Unload Response Ratio (LURR) Theory[J]. PAGEOPH, 1995, 145, (3/4): 701-715.
[8] Xiang-chu YIN, Yucang WANG, Keyin PANG, et al. Development of a New Approach to Earthquake Prediction-Load/unload Response Ratio (LURR) Theory[J]. Pure Appl Geophys, 2000, 157: 2365-2383.
[9] Yin X C, Mora P, Peng K Y, et al. Load-Unload Response Ratio and Accelerating Moment/Energy Release[J]. Critical Region Scaling and Earthquake Prediction Pure Appl Geophys, 2002, 159: 2511-2524.
[10] Mora P, Wang Y, Yin C, et al. Simulation of load-unload Response Ratio and critical Sensitivity in the lattice Solid Model[J]. Pure Appl Geophys, 2002, 159: 2525-2536.
[11] 陈学忠, 尹祥础. 非线性科学在地震研究中的一些用[J]. 地球物理学进展, 1994, 9(1): 100-109.
[12] 许强, 黄润秋. 用加卸载响应比理论探讨斜坡失稳前兆[J]. 中国地质灾害与防治学报, 1995, 6(2): 112-119.
[13] 黄润秋, 许强. 工程地质广义系统科学分析原理及应用[M]. 北京: 地质出版社, 1995. 125-131.
[14] 张兆平, 张少泉, 关杰, 等. 矿井微震与冲击地压危险评价研究[J]. 中国地震, 1988, 4(2): 123-124.
[15] 张少泉. 矿山冲击的地震学研究与开发[J]. 中国地震, 1993, 9(1): 1-8.
[16] 胡毓良. 诱发地震[J]. 国际地震动态, 1994, (6): 37-38.
[17] Mcgarr A, Simpson D. A broad look at induced and triggered seismicity[A]. in Rockbursts and Seismicity in Mines[C]. edited by Lasocki S, Cibowicz S, balkema A A. Rotterdam, 1997. 385-396.
[18] Ouillon G, Sornette D. The concept of “critical earthquakes” applied to mine rockbursts with time-to-failure analysis[J]. Geophys J Int, 2000, 143: 450-468.
[19] 刘万琴, 赵明, 郑治真. 公里尺度地震预报的实验研究[J]. 中国地球物理学会年刊, 1994, (年刊): 122-123.
[20] 陈棋福, 尹祥础, 马丽. 加卸载响应比的自然概率分布[J]. 中国地震 1996, 12(3): 269-274.
[21] 庄建仓, 尹祥础. 加卸载响应比在Poisson模型下的随机分布[J]. 中国地震, 1999, 15(1): 128-138.
[22] 王海涛, 彭克银, 庄建仓, 等. 样本条件对加卸载响应比计算结果的影响分析[J]. 地震, 1999, 19(3): 223-229.
[23] 刘桂萍, 马丽, 尹祥础. 首都圈地区中等地震前响应比特征的研究[J]. 地震, 1994, 14(6): 34-39.