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地震 ›› 2004, Vol. 24 ›› Issue (3): 29-34.

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前兆台站及观测测项的密度改正方法

王炜1, 吴耿锋2, 张博锋2, 郑兆苾3, 刘辉2, 李生2   

  1. 1.上海市地震局, 上海 200062;
    2.上海大学, 上海 200072;
    3.安徽省地震局, 安徽 合肥 230031
  • 出版日期:2004-07-31 发布日期:2021-11-29
  • 作者简介:王炜(1947-), 男, 江苏南京人, 研究员, 主要从事地震学、 地震预报等研究。
  • 基金资助:
    “十五”科技部科技攻关项目(2001BA601B01-04-04)

The correcting method of station number and items number of precursory observation

WANG Wei1, WU Geng-feng2, ZHANG Bo-feng2, ZHENG Zhao-bi3, LIU Hui2, LI Sheng2   

  1. 1. Earthquake Administration of Shanghai Municipality, Shanghai 200062;
    2. Computer Institute of Shanghai University, Shanghai 200072;
    3. Earthquake Administration of Anhui Province, Hefei 230031; China
  • Online:2004-07-31 Published:2021-11-29

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摘要： 介绍了使用MYCIN不精确推理模型生成发震可信度分布图、 可信度密度等值线图以及进行前兆测项的密度改正方法。 通过对1989年大同6.1级和1998年张北6.2级地震的震前异常进行推理和比较, 经过密度改正的可信度密度等值线图可以克服某些地区由于前兆测项密度较高而造成对地点判断的偏差, 从而对未来发震地区的判断起到较好的效果。

关键词: 密度改正, MYCIN不精确推理, 可信度

Abstract: How to make the distribution contour of creditability factor and density of earthquake occurrence using MYCIN inexact inference method and how to make density correction for precursory observation items are introduced in this paper. By means of the inference and analysis for Datong earthquake MS 6.1 occurred in 1989 and Zhangbei earthquake MS 6.2 occurred in 1998 the corrected creditability density distribution contour can correct mistake in estimating location of future earthquakes due to higher precursory density in some areas. The correcting method for precursory item density has good effect.

Key words: Density correction, MYCIN inexact inference, Creditability factor

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