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地震 ›› 2003, Vol. 23 ›› Issue (4): 37-42.

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强震前大小地震比例关系及在地震预报中的应用

邵辉成1, 李炳乾1, 赵卫明2, 刘志辉3, 夏长起3   

  1. 1.陕西省地震局, 陕西西安 710068;
    2.宁夏回族自治区地震局, 宁夏银川 750001;
    3.河北省地震局, 河北石家庄 050021
  • 收稿日期:2002-11-15 修回日期:2003-01-20 出版日期:2003-10-31 发布日期:2021-12-21
  • 作者简介:邵辉成( 1963-), 男, 陕西户县人, 副研究员, 主要从事分析预报等研究。
  • 基金资助:
    “ 十五” 中国地震局计划项目( 2001BA601B01-03-04)

The proportion of large to small earthquakes and application in earthquake prediction

SHAO Hui-cheng1, LI Bing-qian1, ZHAO Wei-ming2, LIU Zhi-hui3, XIA Chang-qi3   

  1. 1. Seismological Bureau of Shaanxi Province, Xi' an 710068, China;
    2. Seismological Bureau of Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region, Yinchuan 750001, China;
    3. Seismological Bureau of Hebei Province, Shijiazhuang 050021, China
  • Received:2002-11-15 Revised:2003-01-20 Online:2003-10-31 Published:2021-12-21

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摘要： 针对目前广泛使用的b 值对资料要求较高的缺陷, 利用贝叶斯判别准则, 计算强震前中小地震数比p 值的方法, 计算了西北地区6 级以上地震前中小地震比例的变化情况, 结果表明该值与6 级以上地震有明显的对应关系, 地震一般发生在p 值高值异常区, 说明该方法对西北地区6 级以上地震有一定的预测意义, 同时对p 值的物理意义进行了探讨。

关键词: 大小地震, 强震, 贝叶斯信息准则, 西北地区

Abstract: Aiming at the shortage of the b value method, which needs higher quality data, we used the maximum likelihood and Byaesian minimum criterion method to calculate the proportion number of large to small earthquakes before the eight strong earthquakes with M ≥6 in Northwest China region.It is found that the proportion has a certain significance for predicting the strong earthquakes with M ≥6 in Northwest China;and the paper also gives the explanation of the proportion of large to small earthquakes.

Key words: Large and small earthquakes, Strong earthquake, Criterion of Bayesian, Northwest China

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