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地震

地震 ›› 2002, Vol. 22 ›› Issue (3): 15-20.

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加强基础理论研究和基础监测工作——关于提高地震预报水平的思考

李延兴   

  1. 中国地震局第一地形变监测中心,天津 300180
  • 收稿日期:2002-03-11 修回日期:2002-03-18 出版日期:2002-07-31 发布日期:2021-12-21
  • 作者简介:李延兴(1942-),男,河南尉氏人,研究员,1996年博士生导师,主要从事大地测量学、空间大地测量学及地形与地震关系研究。
  • 基金资助:
    国家重点基础研究发展规划项目资助(G1998040703)

Strengthening basic theoretical study and basic monitoring——Consideration regarding improvement of earthquake prediction level

LI Yan-xing   

  1. The First Crustal Deformation Monitoring Center, CSB, Tianjin 300180, China
  • Received:2002-03-11 Revised:2002-03-18 Online:2002-07-31 Published:2021-12-21

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摘要： 分析了我国目前的地震预报水平, 1996~ 2000年我国地震预报的平均成功率(R值) 为0. 330,总的预报水平仍是较低的,预报的成功率是不稳定的,漏报和虚报的比例还相当高。文中指出,制约我国地震预报水平提高的主要因素是: 地震预报仍然是经验预报,由于受到人们经验的局限性与制约,预报水平很难有质的提高;目前还没有建立起较完善的理论基础,还没有形成以理论模型为指导的预报方法和预报体系;基础观测系统薄弱,尚不能提供随时空变化的各种“物理场”的信息。分析表明,地震活动与地震孕育发生的理论研究主要涉及地球动力学、天体动力学、地球化学三大学科领域。与此有关的学科主要有地球物理学、大地测量学、地质学、地球化学和天体物理学。应从这五大学科中重点研究与地震活动、地震孕育发生有关的基础理论,以及地震触发的基本理论问题。为保证地震预报工作的需要,应进一步加强基础监测工作,从而获得中国大陆及周边地区地壳水平、垂直运动速度场、中国大陆重点地震监视区的重力场、地球磁场、应力场、地壳热流场等随时空变化的信息。为提高我国地震预报的水平,需建设三支高素质的地震工作队伍,即地震预报专家队伍、基础理论研究专家队伍和监测队伍。

关键词: 地震预报, 存在问题, 基础理论, 基础监测

Abstract: In the paper, the present level of earthquake prediction in China is analyzed. With an averaged success rate (R-value) of 0. 330 in earthquake prediction in China from 1996 to 2000,one can see that the general prediction level in China is rather low now, the success rare is unstable, and the proportions of false predictions and failure predictions are quite high. The major factors to effect improving the level of earthquake prediction in China areas follows: the earthquake prediction in China is stillthe empirical type. Limited and restricted by the experi-ences of the people, the prediction level is difficult to improvequalitatively. Second, arelative-lyperfect theoretical foundation has not beenestablished now, and the prediction method and prediction system basedon the theoretical models has not been formed y et. Third, the basic observational system is weak, and a variety of "physical field" information related to space-time variation can't be provided. The analysis in the paper indicates that the theoretical study on seismicity, earthquake development and occurrence is mainly involved in 3 scientific fields of geody namics, astrodynamics and geochemistry. And the related scientific disciplines are main-ly geophysics, geodesy, geology, geochemistry and astrophysics. We should carry out a key study on the basic theories associated with seismicity, earthquake development and occurrence, and earthquake triggering with in these 5 scientific disciplines. Therefore, for the need of earthquake prediction, basic monitoring should be further streng thened inorder toobtain a va-riety of information related to space-time variation from the velocity field of crustal horizontal and vertical movements, from the gravity field, geomagnetic field, stress field and crustal heat flow field in the major seismic monitoring areas in China's Mainl and. Moreover, to improve the level of earthquake prediction in China, 3 high-quality seismic contingents should beestab-lished, e. g. an expert conting ent in earthquake prediction, an expert contingent in basic theo-retical re search and a conting ent in seismic monitoring.

Key words: Earthquake prediction, Pre-existing problem, Basic theory, Basic monitoring

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