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地震 ›› 1998, Vol. 18 ›› Issue (1): 49-56.

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顺义MS4.0地震前兆演化特点及利用晌应比进行的震前和震后趋势判断

张永仙, 刘桂萍, 陈棋福, 马丽, 杨文政   

  1. 中国北京 100036 国家地震局分析预报中心
  • 收稿日期:1997-04-01 修回日期:1997-05-25 出版日期:1998-01-31 发布日期:2022-05-10
  • 作者简介:张永仙,女,1965年11月出生,助理研究员,1991年7月获硕士学位,主要从事孕震过程及前兆机理研究、首都圈地区地震预报研究工作。

CHARACTERISTICS OF PRECURSORY EVOLUTION BEFORE SHUNYI EARTHQUAKE WITH MS=4.0 AND THE JUDGEMENT OF TENDENCIES BEFORE AND AFTER THE SHOCK BY USING THE LOAD/UNLOAD RESPONSE RATIO

Zhang Yongxian, Liu Guiping, Chen Qifu, Ma Li, Yang Wenzheng   

  1. Center for Analysis and Prediction, SSB, Beijing 100036, China
  • Received:1997-04-01 Revised:1997-05-25 Online:1998-01-31 Published:2022-05-10

摘要: 回顾性地分析了1996年12月16日顺义MS 4.0地震前,首都圈的异常演变情况及利用加卸载响应比等方法对该地震震前形势及震后趋势进行的综合判断.结果表明,顺义地震前测震学及非测震学均存在地震前兆,这些前兆具有一定程度的中期向短期演化的特点.利用响应比除可以对主震作出一定程度的预测外,还能对较大余震作出不同程度的预测。作者还探讨了地震日常监测中须要汲取的经验教训。

关键词: 地震前兆, 趋势预测, 前兆演化, 加卸载响应比

Abstract: The evolutional process of anomalies in the Capital Area before Shunyi MS 4.0 earth­quake and the judgement of tendencies before and after the shock by using the Load/Un­load Response Ratio (LURR) and other methods are described in this paper. The results show that the earthquake precursors in seismology and other observational fields before the shock exist, and these precursors show the evolutional characteristics of developing from the medium term to short term to some extent. LURR could not only predict the ma­jor earthquake to certain extent, but also some bigger aftershocks in varying degrees. Some experiences and lessons in routine earthquake prediction are also discussed in this pa­per.

Key words: Earthquake precursor, Trend prediction, Precursory evolution, Load/Unload Response Ratio