关于应力触发和应力影概念在地震预报中应用的一些思考

地震 ›› 2001, Vol. 21 ›› Issue (3): 1-7.

• • 下一篇

关于应力触发和应力影概念在地震预报中应用的一些思考

石耀霖

中国科学院研究生院,北京 100039

收稿日期:2001-03-13 修回日期:2001-04-29 出版日期:2001-07-31 发布日期:2022-06-02
作者简介:石耀霖(1944),男,教授,河北保定人, 1986年获美国加州伯克利大学博士学位, 1993年博士生导师,主要从事地球动力学定量化模拟及多学科综合研究。
基金资助:
国家重点基础研究发展规划项目(G98040706); 国家自然科学基金项目(49974023)

Stress triggers and stress shadows: How to apply these concepts to earthquake prediction

SHI Yao-lin

Graduate School, CAS, Beijing 100039, China

Received:2001-03-13 Revised:2001-04-29 Online:2001-07-31 Published:2022-06-02

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 应力触发和应力影概念及其在地震预报中的应用,是学术界关注的热点,尚有一系列需要研究的问题。例如初始应力场的确定,合理流变模型的选取和计算,孔隙压力的变化和影响,断层强度随时间的变化等。特别在估计应力场变化时,人们现今只注意到大地震对应力场造成的变化。一些新的观测事实表明,大量的小地震效应,慢地震的效应和无震滑动的效应,也不容忽视。定量考虑它们的效应,是今后应力触发和应力影研究中应该注意的课题。

关键词: 应力触发, 应力影, 地震预报

Abstract: It is a frontier of contemporary research to apply the concepts of stress triggers and stress shadows to earthquake prediction, there are, however, a number of questions deserved in depth study. Among them are determination of initial stress field, choice of reasonable rheological models and their computation, variations of pore pressure and its effects, variation of fault strength with time. Particularly, in the present calculation of variations of stress field produced by fault dislocation, only the effects of large earthquakes have been included, but latest observations indicate that effects of large amount of small earthquakes, slow and quiet earthquakes, and aseismic slip are not negligible. Quantitative study of their effects is a promising direction in the research on stress triggers and stress shadows.

Key words: Stress triggers, Stress shadows, Earthquake prediction

中图分类号:

P315. 72

石耀霖. 关于应力触发和应力影概念在地震预报中应用的一些思考[J]. 地震, 2001, 21(3): 1-7.

SHI Yao-lin. Stress triggers and stress shadows: How to apply these concepts to earthquake prediction[J]. EARTHQUAKE, 2001, 21(3): 1-7.

参考文献

[1] Harris R A. Introduction to special section: Stress triggers, stress shadows, and implications for seismic hazard [J]. Jour Geophys Res, 1998, 103(B10): 24347-24358.
[2] Smith S W, Van de Lindt W. Strain adjustment a ssociated with earthquakes in southern California [J]. Bull Seismolo Soc Am, 1969, 59: 11-1589.
[3] Rybicki K. Analysis of after shocks on the basis of dislocation theory [J]. Phys earth Planet Inter, 1973, 7: 402-422.
[4] Yamashina K. A possible factor which trigg ers sha llow intr a-pla te earthquakes [J]. Phys earth Planet Inter, 1979, 18: 153-164.
[5] Stein R S, Lisowski M. The 1979 Homestead Valley earthquake sequence, Califo rnia: Control of after shocks and postseismic defo rmation[J]. J Geophys Res, 1983, 88: 66-6490.
[6] 王仁.华北地区地震迁移规律的数学模拟[J].地震学报, 1980, 2(1): 32-42.
[7] Hill D P, Rea senberg P A, Micha el A, et al. Seismicity remotely trig g ered by the magnitude 7. 3 Landers, California earthquake [J]. Science, 1993, 260: 11-1623.
[8] Stein R S, Barka A A, Dieterich J H. Prog ressive failiure on the North Anatolian fault since 1939 by earth quake stress triggering [J]. Geophys J Int, 1997, 128: 594-604.
[9] Okata Y. Internal deformation due to shear and tensile faults in a half-space [J]. Bull Seismo l So c Am, 1992, 82: 11-1040.
[10] Deng Jishu, Gurnis M, Karamo ri H, et al. Visco elastic flow in the lower crust after the 1992 Landers, California earthquake [J]. Science 1998, 282: 1689-1692
[11] Pollitz F F, Burgmann R, Romanowicz B. Viscosity of oceanic asthenosphere inferred from remote triggering of earthquakes [J]. Science, 1998, 280: 1245-1249.
[12] Peltzer G, Rosen P, Roger F, et al. Postseismic rebound in fault step-overs caused by porefluid flow [J]. Science, 1996, 273: 11-1204.
[13] Dapeng Zhao, Hiroo Kanamori, Hiroaki Negishi, et al. Tomogr aphy of the source area of the 1995 Ko be Earthquake: Evidence for fluids at the hypocenter? [J]. Science, 1996, 274: 11-1894.
[14] Li Yong-Gang, Vidal J E, Aki K, et al. Evidence of shallow fault zo ne streng thening after the 1992 M7. 5 Landers, California, earthquake [J]. Science, 1998, 279: 217-219.
[15] Beroza G C, Jordan T H. Sea rching for slow and silent earthquakes using freeo scillations [J]. Jour Geophys Res, 1990, 95(B3): 2485-2510.
[16] Nadeau R M, McEvilly T V. Fault slip rates at depth from recurr ence interv als of repeating micro earthquakes [J]. Science, 1999, 285: 718-721.
[17] Crescentini L, Amoruso A, Scar pa R. Constraints on slow earthquake dynamics from a swarm in Central Italy [J]. Science, 1996, 286: 2132-2134.
[18] McGuire J J, Ihmle P F, Jor dan T H. Time-domain observations of slow precursor to the 1994 Romanche transform ea rthqua ke [J]. Science, 1996, 274: 82-85.
[19] Kerr R A. Geophysicists po nder ancient chills and elusiv equakes [J]. Science, 1997, 276: 1792-1793.
[20] Kerr R A. A slow start for earthquakes [J]. Science, 1998, 279: 985.
[21] Iacopi R. earthquake Country [M]. Lane Book Compa ny, Menlo Park, 1964. 191.
[22] Reilinger R E, Ergintav S, Burgmann R, et al. Coseismic and postseismic Fault Slip for the 17 Aug ust 1999, Izmit Turkey earthquake [J]. Science, 2000, 289: 1519-1524.
[23] Kerr R A. Can great earthquakes extendtheir reach? [J]. Science, 1998, 280: 11-1195.
[24] Hardebeck J L, Hauksson E. Role of fluids in faulting inferred from Stress field signatures [J]. Science, 1999, 285: 236-239.

关于应力触发和应力影概念在地震预报中应用的一些思考

Stress triggers and stress shadows: How to apply these concepts to earthquake prediction

PDF (PC)

可视化

摘要/Abstract

引用本文

使用本文

参考文献

相关文章 15

编辑推荐

Metrics

本文评价

[1]	张琰, 吴忠良, 李佳威. 地震预测预报研究议程的演变: 文献计量分析的启示[J]. 地震, 2019, 39(2): 159-173.
[2]	邵志刚, 王芃. 2008年汶川8.0级地震对地震预测研究的启示思考[J]. 地震, 2018, 38(2): 1-10.
[3]	邵志刚, 王芃, 李海艳. 2011年日本M_W9.0地震相关研究综述[J]. 地震, 2016, 36(4): 1-21.
[4]	顾国华. 地壳形变与地震前兆探索回顾和展望[J]. 地震, 2012, 32(2): 22-30.
[5]	敖雪明, 龙海英, 王桂岭. 新疆天山近7级地震前震群活动的时空分布演化特征[J]. 地震, 2010, 30(4): 124-132.
[6]	吴芳, 王卫东, 张永志, 赵云峰. 基于小波分析和最小二乘支持向量机的中国大陆地震震级预测研究[J]. 地震, 2010, 30(2): 54-60.
[7]	华卫, 陈章立, 李志雄, 赵翠萍, 王勤彩. 汶川8.0级地震触发与余震活动空间分布研究[J]. 地震, 2009, 29(1): 33-39.
[8]	黄元敏, 马胜利. 关于应力触发地震机理的讨论[J]. 地震, 2008, 28(3): 95-102.
[9]	陈章立, 李志雄. 对地震预报的科学思考(二)前兆观测研究及加强地震综合预报研究的方向和重点[J]. 地震, 2008, 28(2): 1-16.
[10]	周龙泉, 马宏生, 夏红, 周俊杰, 邵志刚. 2007年苏门答腊8.5级、 8.3级地震强余震库仑破裂应力触发研究[J]. 地震, 2008, 28(1): 40-46.
[11]	罗灼礼, 王伟君. 地震前兆的复杂性及地震预报、预警、预防综合决策问题的讨论浅释唐山、海城、松潘、丽江等大地震的经验教训[J]. 地震, 2008, 28(1): 19-32.
[12]	陈章立, 李志雄. 对地震预报的科学思考(一)地震预报某些经验与做法的再认识及思考地震预报问题的基本出发点[J]. 地震, 2008, 28(1): 1-18.
[13]	徐东红, 肖爱华. 河北地区与地震有关的电磁扰动现象[J]. 地震, 2007, 27(增刊): 80-87.
[14]	郝平, 刘杰, 韩竹军, 傅征祥. 印尼M_S8.7地震对中国大陆3次后续中强地震的动应力触发研究[J]. 地震, 2006, 26(3): 26-36.
[15]	张国民, 张晓东, 刘杰, 刘耀炜, 田勤俭, 郝平, 马宏生, 焦明若. 印尼苏门答腊8.7级大震对中国陆区的影响[J]. 地震, 2005, 25(4): 15-25.