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地震

地震 ›› 1999, Vol. 19 ›› Issue (1): 11-18.

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用于中短期地震预报的一些地震活动性参量相关性讨论①

陆远忠, 阎利军, 郭若眉   

  1. 中国北京 100085 中国地震局地壳应力研究所
  • 收稿日期:1998-06-17 修回日期:1998-07-17 出版日期:1999-01-31 发布日期:2022-09-19
  • 作者简介:陆远忠,男,1940年5月出生,研究员,1997年博士生导师,主要从事地震学、地震预报等研究工作。
  • 基金资助:
    ①中国地震局“九五”科研攻关项目（l9504 04→03 03）

DISCUSSION ABOUT CORRELATION OF SOME SEISMOLOGICAL PARAMETERS IN MEDIUl\ιAND SHORT TERM EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION

Lu Yuanzhong, Yan Lijun, Guo Ruomet   

  1. Institute of Crustal Dynamics, CSB, Beijing 100085, China
  • Received:1998-06-17 Revised:1998-07-17 Online:1999-01-31 Published:2022-09-19

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摘要： 在利用地震活动性图像预报地震的研究中,发展了众多定量描述活动图像特征的参量。用它们综合进行短期预报,其相互间的相关性是十分重要的。利用计算机产生地震发生的时间、位置和强度分别符合均匀分布、泊松分布、负指数分布、韦泊尔分布5个随机地震目录,以及华 北地区元强震时段的天然地震目录,分别计算了b、C、D、Mf、N值随时间的变化,统计分析了其 相关关系。结果认为, D值与N值呈显著相关仆值与Mf值呈显著性负相关。随机地震目录中, 其他各参量（除个别外）均呈非显著性相关。而在华北天然地震目录中,其他各对参量均有不同程度的相关。在实际地震预报中应当考虑上述结果,并提出了某些建议。

关键词: 地震预报, 地震活动性, 相关性, 统计分析

Abstract: There are lots of seismological parameters proposed for studying the earthquake pre­diction by using seismicity pattern. It is very important that whether these parameters are mutually correlated for synthetic earthquake prediction. We make five earthquake cata logues in which the time, location and magnitude of earthquakes are coincident respectively with the even distribution, Poisson distribution, negative exponent distribution and Weibull distribution. Using those catalogues and a natural earthquake catalogue of North China from 1977 to 1988, in which there was no strong earthquake occurred, we compute the b, C, D, Mf and N values and study their mutual correlation in statistics. From the research result and considering the physical mechanism, we conclude that D and N values are obviously correlated, band Mf values are obviously negatively correlated. Among the rest parameters （excepting one or two), there is not obvious correlation in the random earthquake catalogues, but other parameters are all correlated to a certain degree in North China natural earthquake catalogue. We think that this result should be considered rn practice. We also give some suggestion regarding how to use these parameters in earth quake prediction.

Key words: Earthquake preparation, Seismic activity, correlation, Statistical analysis