Bayes判别分析法与地震短临预测①

地震 ›› 1999, Vol. 19 ›› Issue (1): 33-40.

Bayes判别分析法与地震短临预测^①

王晓青¹⁾, 石绍先²⁾, 丁香¹⁾

¹⁾中国北京 100036 中国地震局分析预报中心;
²⁾中国昆明 650041 云南省地震局

收稿日期:1998-06-17 修回日期:1998-07-06 出版日期:1999-01-31 发布日期:2022-09-19
作者简介:王晓青,男,1963年5月出生,副研究员,1987年获硕士学位,主要从事地震危险与灾害预测,遥感计算机应用软件设计等工作。
基金资助:
^①中国地震局“九五”科研攻关项目（95-04-05-02-04）

BAYES DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS AND ITS APPLICATION TO SHORT AND IMMINENT EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION

Wang Xiaqing¹⁾, Shi Shaoxian²⁾, Ding Xiang¹⁾

¹⁾Center for Analysis and Prediction, CSB, Beijing 100036, China;
²⁾Seismological Bureau of Yunnan Province, Kunming 650041, China

Received:1998-06-17 Revised:1998-07-06 Online:1999-01-31 Published:2022-09-19

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 建立了套完整的Bayes判别分析方法.并提出了明确的衡量综合预测结果所冒风险大小的风险代价比K_dno 该方法可用于不同时间尺度的地震综合预测。选取云南地区1994~1996年的水氨观测资料,采用 X²统计检验法识别前兆异常,利用Bayes判别分析方法对云南地区的强震活动性进行了内符检验和外推预测。在风险代价比K_dn取4的情况下,内符检验的R值可达0. 54,外推时空占有率0. 07,获得了满意的效果。

关键词: 水氨异常, 地震短临预测, x²统计检验, Bayes判别分析

Abstract: A Bayes discriminant analysis is developed in the paper, in which the threshold of classification can be determined according to the risk level we take. The method is available in earthquake forecast with a variety of time scales. An example which shows good results of short term and imminent earthquake forecast with Radon data observed in Yunnan during 1994~ 1997 is also given in the paper.

Key words: Radon anomaly, Short term and imminent earthquake forecast, X² statistical test, Bayes discriminant analysis

王晓青, 石绍先, 丁香. Bayes判别分析法与地震短临预测^①[J]. 地震, 1999, 19(1): 33-40.

Wang Xiaqing, Shi Shaoxian, Ding Xiang. BAYES DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS AND ITS APPLICATION TO SHORT AND IMMINENT EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION[J]. EARTHQUAKE, 1999, 19(1): 33-40.