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地震

地震 ›› 1999, Vol. 19 ›› Issue (1): 65-70.

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地震活动中期预测指标研究及其空间图像演化①

蒋淳1), 陆远忠2), 王建国1), 田山1)   

  1. 1)中国天津 300201 天津市地震局;
    2)中国北京 100085 中国地震局地壳应力研究所
  • 收稿日期:1998-06-17 修回日期:1998-07-20 出版日期:1999-01-31 发布日期:2022-09-19
  • 作者简介:蒋淳,女, 1951 年 8 月出生,高级工程师,主要从事模糊集理论（模糊数学〉在地震预报研究中的应用以及地震活动性图像等研究工作。
  • 基金资助:
    ①中国地震局“九五”科研攻关项目（95-04-04-03-03）

RESEARCH ON MEDIUM-TERM SEISMIC INDEXES FOR EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION AND THEIR SPATIAL IMAGE EVOLUTION

Jiang Chun1), Lu Yuanzhong2), Wang Jianguo1), Tian Shan1)   

  1. 1)Seismological Bureau of Tianjin Municipality, Tianjin 300201, China;
    2)Institute of Crustal Dynamics, CSB, Beijing 100085, China
  • Received:1998-06-17 Revised:1998-07-20 Online:1999-01-31 Published:2022-09-19

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摘要： 在研究应用模糊数学和非线性科学某些方法的基础上,通过实际预报检验,对一些中期预报较好的方法,如平静异常μq值、自相似从属函数μs值、自助统计方差 σBM值进行深入研究,提取中期预报定量化指标,探索孕震后期地震活动图像演化特征。 结果表明：μq、μs、σBM值能够较好地反映地震前中期 短期异常变化特征,可以作为中期预报定量化指标;空间时序图像系列的显示,能定性反映震前异常区域及地震活动图像演化特征。

关键词: 中期预测, 平静异常, 自相似从属函数, 自助统计方差

Abstract: In this paper, based on study and application of some fuzzy mathematical methods and nonlinear science methods, and through practical test for earthquake prediction, some good medium term methods are deeply studied, and some good quantitative indexes have been picked up, such as seismic quietness anomaly μq, self-similarity subordinate functionμs,, boot strap statistical deviationσBM and others. Furthermore, the evolutionary features of seismicity pattern in late period of earthquake preparation are explored. The results show that, as quanti tative indexes for mid term prediction, μq,μs, and σBM can have obvious mid-term and short term changes before large earthquakes; the time series of spatial pattern can represent the general anomalous areas before earthquakes and the evolutionary features of the seismicity pattern.

Key words: Medium-term prediction, Quietness anomaly, Self-similarity subordinate function, Bootstrap statistical deviation