欢迎访问《地震》，
地震

地震 ›› 1999, Vol. 19 ›› Issue (2): 161-167.

• • 上一篇    下一篇

张北 6. 2级地震测震学指标短临判定分析①

顾瑾平, 陈学忠   

  1. 中国北京 100036 中国地震局分析预报中心
  • 收稿日期:1998-04-27 修回日期:1998-09-29 出版日期:1999-04-30 发布日期:2022-09-19
  • 作者简介:顾瑾平,女, 1944年 10月出生,研究员,主要从事地震学综合预报工作。

JUDGEMENT AND ANALYSIS OF SHORT-TERM AND IMPENDING SEISMOMETRIC INDEXES BEFORE ZHANGBEI EARTHQUAKE WITH MS 6. 2

Gu Jinping, Chen Xuezhong   

  1. Center for Analysis and Prediction, CSB, Beijing 100036, China
  • Received:1998-04-27 Revised:1998-09-29 Online:1999-04-30 Published:2022-09-19

PDF (PC)

摘要： 在对地震学前兆认识的基础上,总结了张北 6. 2级地震前作出短临判定的可能依据。 分析考虑了由场及源、由中期向短临过渡的认识思路。 在短临三要素判定中强调了空区、条带、平静、震群和中等地震活动及测震学指标异常在时间上的相依性和物理上的关联性。 并且对华北近几年发生的 5次 6级地震的测震学前兆作了比较。表明无论是地震活动性或指标参数的异常上均有共性,但程度各有不同。 还根据非线性理论中的尺度依赖性原理提出一种对特定范围中的强震进行检验性预测的方法。 最后讨论了强震孕育的可能机理与短临预报关系。

关键词: 地震预报, 测震学前兆, 短临判, 定 前兆类比

Abstract: Based on seismometric precursors, the possible scientific basis for the short-term and impending judgement before Zhangbei earthquake (MS 6. 2, January 10, 1998) is dis-cussed. It is important to pay attention to the process from the field to the focus, and transition from middle-term to short-term in precursory anomalies. For the short-term prediction, the seismic gapzoning, quietness, seismic swarm and activity of moderate events, etc. are emphasized, especially, their mutual dependence in time and the physical correlation. Also, the seismometric precursors for 5 earthquakes (MS≥ 6. 0) happened after 1989 in North China are compared. A new method for anomaly analysis is proposed and the possible function for the short-term precursor prediction is discussed.

Key words: Earthquake prediction, Seismometric precursor, Shortterm judgement, Precursory comparison