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地震

地震 ›› 1999, Vol. 19 ›› Issue (2): 204-208.

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云南地区地震短临预报实践①

傅虹, 王世芹   

  1. 中国昆明 650041 云南省地震局
  • 收稿日期:1998-03-06 修回日期:1998-05-04 出版日期:1999-04-30 发布日期:2022-09-19
  • 作者简介:傅虹,女, 1963年 5月出生,副研究员,主要从事地震综合预报研究工作。

SHORT-TERM AND IMPENDING EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION PRACTICE IN YUNNAN REGION

Fu Hong, Wang Shiqin   

  1. Seism ological Bureau of Yunnan Province, Kunming 650041, China
  • Received:1998-03-06 Revised:1998-05-04 Online:1999-04-30 Published:2022-09-19

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摘要： 1997年 4~ 6月云南省地震局对滇西南重点监视区做了短临预报,但这期间未发生所预期的地震。而滇西南地区 6级地震的背景和省内的前兆异常变化是明显的,为此,认为前兆异常是区域应力场增强的结果。异常与地震是相互伴生的兄弟关系,不是父子间的因果关系,是造成地震虚报的主要原因。

关键词: 预报实践, 虚报原因, 区域应力场, 异常与地震关系

Abstract: The short-term and impending earthquake prediction for the key monitoring regions in south-western Yunnan was made by Seismological Bureau of Yunnan Province, from April to June 1997, but there was no expected earthquake occur red during this period. Because of the distinct background of M6 earthquake in south-western Yunnan region and the obvious variations in precursory anomalies in Yunnan, it is thought that the precursory anoma-lies w ere results of strengthened regional stress field. The relation between anomaly and earthquake seems to bean attendant relation between brothers, but not causality between father and son, which is the main cause of false earthquake prediction.

Key words: Prediction practice, Cause of false prediction, Regional stress field, Re-lation between anomaly and earthquake